Aug. 7, 2024
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%. These results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.
In a May 6-15, 2024, Marquette Law School Poll national survey, Trump was the choice of 50% and President Joe Biden was the pick of 50% Among registered voters, while Trump took 51% of likely voters and Biden 49%.
When the ballot question explicitly includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent candidate Cornel West, Harris receives 47% and Trump 41% Among registered voters. Kennedy is supported by 9%, Oliver receives 1%, Stein is the choice of 2%, and West wins 1%, among these voters. Among likely voters, Harris is supported by 50% and Trump 42%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, and West 0%.
In a generic question about congressional races, 52% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 48% will vote for the Republican candidate. In May, 50% picked the Democrat and 50% picked the Republican.
The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.
A large majority of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 87% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee, 10% very or somewhat dissatisfied, and 3% who say they don’t know. The poll was completed before Harris secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates.
A substantial majority of all registered voters, 80%, say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 13% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 87% say Biden should have withdrawn.
Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 43% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 11% say they don’t know.
A majority, 56%, say Biden should not resign and should serve out his term as president, while 31% say he should resign and 13% don’t know.
When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 58% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 42% say Harris will definitely or probably win.
The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 69% say Trump would definitely or probably win, while 19% say Biden would win and 12% say they don’t know.
Since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50% of registered voters, while 3% say they haven’t heard enough. In May, 35% had a favorable opinion of Harris and 59% had an unfavorable view of her, and 6% hadn’t heard enough. The full trend of Harris favorability is shown in Table 1. This July poll is the best net favorability rating in Marquette polling for Harris since she became vice president.
Table 1: Harris favorability trend
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Opinion |
|||
|
Net |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-3 |
47 |
50 |
3 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
-24 |
35 |
59 |
6 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
-25 |
35 |
60 |
5 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
-19 |
37 |
56 |
7 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
-26 |
34 |
60 |
6 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
-20 |
37 |
57 |
6 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
-25 |
33 |
58 |
9 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
-26 |
32 |
58 |
10 |
|
3/13-22/23 |
-21 |
33 |
54 |
13 |
|
1/9-20/23 |
-21 |
35 |
56 |
9 |
|
11/15-22/22 |
-16 |
36 |
52 |
12 |
|
9/7-14/22 |
-15 |
38 |
53 |
9 |
|
1/10-21/22 |
-14 |
37 |
51 |
12 |
|
11/1-10/21 |
-8 |
39 |
47 |
14 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? |
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Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was chosen as the Democratic nominee for vice president after the poll was completed.
Following the July 13 assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee July 15-18, favorability toward Trump rose to 45%, with 53% unfavorable and 1% without an opinion. In May, 41% viewed Trump favorably and 58% unfavorably, with 1% lacking an opinion. The full trend for Trump favorability since 2021 is shown in Table 2. Trump’s net favorability hit a low point in January 2022 but has improved notably in 2023 and 2024. His July net favorability is his best rating since November 2021.
Table 2: Trump favorability trend
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Opinion |
|||
|
Net |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-8 |
45 |
53 |
1 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
-17 |
41 |
58 |
1 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
-13 |
43 |
56 |
1 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
-9 |
45 |
54 |
1 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
-15 |
42 |
57 |
2 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
-15 |
42 |
57 |
1 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
-28 |
35 |
63 |
2 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
-21 |
38 |
59 |
2 |
|
3/13-22/23 |
-29 |
34 |
63 |
2 |
|
1/9-20/23 |
-26 |
36 |
62 |
2 |
|
11/15-22/22 |
-36 |
31 |
67 |
1 |
|
9/7-14/22 |
-30 |
34 |
64 |
2 |
|
7/5-12/22 |
-27 |
35 |
62 |
3 |
|
5/9-19/22 |
-23 |
37 |
60 |
2 |
|
3/14-24/22 |
-22 |
38 |
60 |
2 |
|
1/10-21/22 |
-37 |
31 |
68 |
1 |
|
11/1-10/21 |
-34 |
32 |
66 |
2 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? |
||||
Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is seen favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 45%, with 25% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans and is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats, as shown in Table 3. Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and particularly independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.
Table 3: Vance favorability, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Favorability |
||
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
Republican |
58 |
16 |
26 |
|
Independent |
22 |
35 |
43 |
|
Democrat |
4 |
74 |
22 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name) or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
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Vance is seen as an excellent pick for the vice-presidential slot by 12%, as a good choice by 21%, as a fair choice by 14%, and as a poor selection by 36%, with 17% who say they don’t know. Almost two-thirds of Republicans rate the choice of Vance as excellent or good, while just under half of independents say fair or poor, and almost two-thirds of Democrats rate it poor, as shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Vance as VP, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Rate choice of Vance as VP |
||||
|
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Don’t know |
|
|
Republican |
25 |
40 |
17 |
9 |
9 |
|
Independent |
6 |
13 |
29 |
20 |
31 |
|
Democrat |
1 |
4 |
10 |
63 |
22 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: How would you rate Trump’s choice of Vance for vice president? Would you rate this choice as excellent, good, fair, or poor? |
|||||
Favorability toward Biden improved slightly following his withdrawal from the presidential race to 42% favorable and 58% unfavorable, a 3-point improvement in favorability ratings. The full trend for Biden since November 2021 is shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Biden favorability trend
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Opinion |
|||
|
Net |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-16 |
42 |
58 |
1 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
-21 |
39 |
60 |
1 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
-20 |
40 |
60 |
1 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
-20 |
40 |
60 |
1 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
-19 |
40 |
59 |
1 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
-21 |
39 |
60 |
1 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
-17 |
41 |
58 |
1 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
-23 |
37 |
60 |
3 |
|
3/13-22/23 |
-15 |
41 |
56 |
3 |
|
1/9-20/23 |
-11 |
43 |
54 |
2 |
|
11/15-22/22 |
-6 |
46 |
52 |
3 |
|
9/7-14/22 |
-9 |
44 |
53 |
2 |
|
7/5-12/22 |
-26 |
35 |
61 |
3 |
|
5/9-19/22 |
-17 |
40 |
57 |
3 |
|
3/14-24/22 |
-10 |
44 |
54 |
2 |
|
1/10-21/22 |
-6 |
46 |
52 |
3 |
|
11/1-10/21 |
-5 |
45 |
50 |
5 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? |
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Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” declined slightly in July. For Biden and Trump, 21% were unfavorable to both in May, a group which group shrank to 14% in July. For Harris and Trump, 10% have an unfavorable view of both in July, a decrease from May when 21% were unfavorable to both Harris and Trump.
The replacement of Biden by Harris has changed the relative perceptions of the candidates, with Harris having different perceived traits from Biden. Table 6 shows which phrases describe Harris, Trump, and Biden. The Biden numbers are from the May poll, while Harris and Trump perceptions are from July.
Unlike Biden, few respondents (13%) see Harris as too old to be president; the number was 79% for Biden. Trump is seen as too old by 57%.
Harris performs slightly better than Biden or Trump on “shares my values,” and is less likely to be seen as having behaved corruptly than is Biden and much less so than is Trump.
Trump maintains an advantage on having strong accomplishments, where Harris is seen as only slightly more accomplished than Biden.
Harris has a substantial advantage over Trump on having the right temperament to be president and does a bit better than Biden on this.
Trump is seen as a strong leader by more voters than is Harris, although the margin is modest.
Table 6: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump or Biden
Among registered voters
|
Candidate |
How well phrase describes |
|
|
Very/somewhat well |
Not too/not at all well |
|
|
Is too old to be president |
||
|
Harris |
13 |
87 |
|
Trump |
57 |
43 |
|
Biden |
79 |
21 |
|
Shares your values |
||
|
Harris |
51 |
49 |
|
Trump |
45 |
55 |
|
Biden |
45 |
55 |
|
Has behaved corruptly |
||
|
Harris |
35 |
65 |
|
Trump |
61 |
39 |
|
Biden |
44 |
56 |
|
Strong record of accomplishments |
||
|
Harris |
44 |
56 |
|
Trump |
53 |
47 |
|
Biden |
41 |
59 |
|
Has the right temperament to be president |
||
|
Harris |
58 |
42 |
|
Trump |
41 |
59 |
|
Biden |
52 |
48 |
|
Is a strong leader |
||
|
Harris |
50 |
50 |
|
Trump |
56 |
44 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)(Joe Biden)? |
||
|
Note: Biden items asked in May. Strong leader was not asked in May. |
||
Respondents were also asked if Harris and Trump have the communication skills to succeed as president. For Harris, 50% say she does have the skills needed and 38% say she does not, while 12% say they don’t know. For Trump, 48% say he has the communication skills to succeed as president, while 47% say he does not and 5% say they don’t know. This has not been asked about Biden.
Following Trump’s New York criminal trial in May, 56% say Trump is guilty as the jury found, while 33% say he is not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling, and 11% don’t know.
Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in September. Twenty-six percent say he should be given no penalty at all, 13% say a fine only, 10% say probation without jail, 38% say he should be sentenced to jail, and 13% don’t know.
On July 15, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida dismissed the classified-documents case against Trump, ruling that the appointment of the special prosecutor violated the Constitution. In the survey, 39% favor that decision, while 44% oppose the ruling and 17% say they don’t know. A majority, 75%, believe Trump had top secret and other classified documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago in Florida in 2022, while 24% believe he did not.
Both candidates are seen as more ideologically extreme than voters see themselves. Among all registered voters, 36% describe themselves as having “moderate” political views, 13% say their views are “very conservative,” and 12% say they are “very liberal.”
Among registered voters, 19% see Harris as moderate, while 41% see her as very liberal. Ten percent of voters see Trump as moderate and 48% see him as very conservative. These perceptions, along with those of Biden, are shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Ideological perceptions of candidates and self
Among registered voters
|
Perception of |
Perceived ideology |
||||
|
Very conservative |
Somewhat conservative |
Moderate |
Somewhat liberal |
Very liberal |
|
|
Harris |
3 |
7 |
19 |
30 |
41 |
|
Trump |
48 |
31 |
10 |
4 |
6 |
|
Biden |
3 |
9 |
25 |
25 |
39 |
|
Self |
13 |
24 |
36 |
15 |
12 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…? |
|||||
|
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views? Note: Biden measured in May survey |
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Table 8 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy. He also holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, Medicare and Social Security, and health care.
Between 14% and 22% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.
Table 8: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
|
Issue |
Who better |
|||
|
Harris |
Trump |
Both about the same |
Neither good |
|
|
Immigration and border security |
35 |
53 |
5 |
7 |
|
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza |
32 |
46 |
10 |
12 |
|
The economy |
37 |
49 |
10 |
4 |
|
Foreign relations |
41 |
44 |
9 |
6 |
|
Health care |
47 |
35 |
11 |
7 |
|
Medicare & Social Security |
49 |
36 |
10 |
6 |
|
Ensuring fair and accurate elections |
48 |
33 |
11 |
8 |
|
Abortion policy |
54 |
31 |
8 |
6 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue? |
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Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration. Three issues are tied for next most important—abortion policy, Medicare and Social Security, and ensuring fair elections—as shown in Table 9.
Table 9: Most important issue
Among registered voters
|
|
Most important |
|
Response |
Percent |
|
The economy |
38 |
|
Immigration and border security |
15 |
|
Abortion policy |
10 |
|
Medicare & Social Security |
10 |
|
Ensuring fair and accurate elections |
10 |
|
Health care |
5 |
|
Foreign relations |
3 |
|
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza |
2 |
|
Don't know |
7 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? |
|
Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 10. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important and immigration a distant second, with no other issue reaching double digits. Democrats put the economy first, followed by abortion policy, ensuring fair elections, and Medicare and Social Security. Only 4% of Democrats rank immigration as their top concern.
Table 10: Most important issue, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Issue |
||||||||
|
The economy |
Immigration and border security |
Health care |
Foreign relations |
Abortion policy |
Medicare & Social Security |
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza |
Ensuring fair and accurate elections |
Don't know |
|
|
Republican |
48 |
28 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
|
Independent |
34 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
9 |
27 |
|
Democrat |
29 |
4 |
9 |
3 |
18 |
13 |
3 |
15 |
7 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? |
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Support for deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally varies depending on the framing of the issue. A random half-sample of the survey was asked:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?
With this wording, 61% favor deportation and 39% are opposed.
The other half-sample was asked:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs, and no criminal record?
When worded this way, 45% favor deportations and 55% are opposed.
The trend in vote preference including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 11. Oliver, the Libertarian, was not included prior to this July poll. The total third-party vote has declined from 20% in February to 13% now, with Kennedy falling from 15% to 9% over that time Among registered voters.
Table 11: Vote including third-party candidates
|
Poll dates |
Vote choice |
|||||
|
Biden/Harris |
Trump |
Kennedy |
Oliver |
Stein |
West |
|
|
Registered voters |
||||||
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
47 |
41 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
37 |
40 |
17 |
n/a |
3 |
3 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
38 |
41 |
14 |
n/a |
2 |
5 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
39 |
42 |
15 |
n/a |
2 |
3 |
|
Likely voters |
||||||
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
50 |
42 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
<.5 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
41 |
44 |
11 |
n/a |
2 |
2 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
41 |
41 |
13 |
n/a |
2 |
4 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
40 |
43 |
14 |
n/a |
1 |
1 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West? |
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Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from May to July, as shown in Table 12. In the current survey, 54% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, a substantial increase from 43% in May. This was the first substantial movement in enthusiasm in 2024, with less than 50% saying they were very enthusiastic in all previous 2024 polls until July.
Table 12: Enthusiasm to vote in November election
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Enthusiasm |
|||
|
Very enthusiastic |
Somewhat enthusiastic |
Not too enthusiastic |
Not at all enthusiastic |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
54 |
26 |
14 |
6 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
43 |
26 |
21 |
10 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
37 |
28 |
26 |
9 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
41 |
33 |
19 |
7 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
42 |
32 |
21 |
5 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
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Enthusiasm has increased substantially among Democrats, with a small increase among Republicans. Republicans had a consistent enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls, but this has been mostly erased now, as shown in Table 13. Independents have a quite low level of enthusiasm, which increased only slightly in the latest poll.
Table 13: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Enthusiasm |
|||
|
Very enthusiastic |
Somewhat enthusiastic |
Not too enthusiastic |
Not at all enthusiastic |
|
|
Democrat |
||||
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
55 |
26 |
15 |
5 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
34 |
31 |
24 |
11 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
35 |
27 |
31 |
8 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
34 |
33 |
25 |
8 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
36 |
34 |
23 |
7 |
|
Independent |
||||
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
24 |
21 |
29 |
26 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
20 |
15 |
33 |
32 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
18 |
30 |
25 |
26 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
21 |
32 |
27 |
20 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
20 |
36 |
33 |
10 |
|
Republican |
||||
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
58 |
27 |
11 |
4 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
55 |
22 |
16 |
6 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
43 |
29 |
21 |
7 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
52 |
33 |
12 |
4 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
54 |
28 |
16 |
2 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
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The race is very tight among the very and somewhat enthusiastic, with a slight Harris edge among the very enthusiastic and a slight Trump advantage among the somewhat enthusiastic. Those who are not too enthusiastic and those not at all enthusiastic give Harris larger margins, as shown in Table 14.
Table 14: Vote for Harris or Trump by enthusiasm
Among registered voters
|
Enthusiasm |
Vote choice 2024 |
||
|
Harris |
Trump |
Someone else |
|
|
Very enthusiastic |
52 |
48 |
0 |
|
Somewhat enthusiastic |
49 |
50 |
1 |
|
Not too enthusiastic |
55 |
45 |
0 |
|
Not at all enthusiastic |
62 |
38 |
0 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump]? |
|||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump? |
|||
|
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
|||
In May, with Biden as the Democratic candidate, this enthusiasm gap was much more pronounced, as shown in Table 15. Trump held a larger margin then with the very enthusiastic than Harris now has and Biden had larger margins than either candidate now has with all less enthusiastic groups.
Table 15: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm, May 2024
Among registered voters
|
Enthusiasm |
Vote choice 2024 |
|
|
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump |
|
|
Very enthusiastic |
38 |
62 |
|
Somewhat enthusiastic |
57 |
43 |
|
Not too enthusiastic |
55 |
45 |
|
Not at all enthusiastic |
69 |
31 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between President Joe Biden, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided? |
||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? |
||
|
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
||
Biden’s job approval in July stands at 39%, with disapproval at 61%, little changed since May. Table 16 shows the recent trend in job approval.
Table 16: Biden job approval
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Job approval |
|||||
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Somewhat approve |
Somewhat disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
39 |
61 |
16 |
23 |
19 |
42 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
40 |
60 |
13 |
27 |
17 |
44 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
40 |
60 |
12 |
27 |
14 |
46 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
38 |
62 |
12 |
26 |
18 |
43 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
40 |
60 |
13 |
26 |
16 |
45 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
||||||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? |
||||||
Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In July, 48% approved and 52% disapproved. The recent trend is shown in Table 17.
Table 17: Trump retrospective job approval
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Job approval |
|||||
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Somewhat approve |
Somewhat disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
48 |
52 |
29 |
19 |
10 |
42 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
46 |
54 |
26 |
20 |
13 |
41 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
47 |
53 |
25 |
22 |
12 |
40 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
||||||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? |
||||||
The national economy is seen as excellent by only 4%, as good by 30%, as not so good by 33%, and as poor by 33%. Views of the economy have seen an increasing percentage saying the economy is “poor” since February, as shown in Table 18.
Table 18: Views of the national economy
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
National economy |
|||
|
Excellent |
Good |
Not so good |
Poor |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
4 |
30 |
33 |
33 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
3 |
28 |
38 |
31 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
5 |
28 |
38 |
29 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
6 |
29 |
40 |
25 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
3 |
24 |
40 |
33 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days? |
||||
Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 38% say they are living comfortably, 41% say they are just getting by, and 21% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 19. The percentage who say they are struggling has risen slightly since February, while the percentage living comfortably has declined slightly.
Table 19: Family financial situation
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Financial situation |
||
|
Living comfortably |
Just getting by |
Struggling |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
38 |
41 |
21 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
40 |
42 |
18 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
46 |
38 |
16 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
42 |
41 |
17 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
39 |
43 |
19 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
|||
|
Question: Thinking about your family's financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? |
|||
The Marquette Law School Poll has found a small but consistent Trump advantage over Biden Among registered voters since May 2023. This was a change from the earlier 2023 Marquette Law School Poll surveys, which saw Biden and Trump drawing equal support, and from the 2022 and 2021 polls, which showed Biden with sizeable leads over Trump. The trend, including those saying they would vote for someone else or not vote, is shown in Table 20
Table 20: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, including someone else, November 2021-July 2024
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Vote |
|||
|
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump |
Someone else |
Wouldn't vote |
|
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
43 |
47 |
11 |
0 |
|
5/6-15/24 |
40 |
44 |
14 |
2 |
|
3/18-28/24 |
42 |
44 |
13 |
2 |
|
2/5-15/24 |
42 |
45 |
9 |
4 |
|
11/2-7/23 |
40 |
42 |
15 |
2 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
39 |
44 |
12 |
4 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
37 |
38 |
19 |
5 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
34 |
41 |
19 |
7 |
|
3/13-22/23 |
38 |
38 |
20 |
4 |
|
1/9-20/23 |
40 |
40 |
17 |
3 |
|
11/15-22/22 |
44 |
34 |
19 |
4 |
|
9/7-14/22 |
42 |
36 |
19 |
3 |
|
3/14-24/22 |
43 |
38 |
16 |
4 |
|
1/10-21/22 |
45 |
33 |
18 |
4 |
|
11/1-10/21 |
43 |
35 |
18 |
4 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn't vote) |
||||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn't vote) |
||||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court are held for release on Aug. 9. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.
Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu.
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