Sept. 11, 2024
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 52% of registered voters and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 48% in a head-to-head matchup in the race for president. Among likely voters, it is also Harris as the choice of 52% and Trump of 48%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.
In the Marquette Law School Poll’s July survey of Wisconsin, Harris received 49% and Trump 50% among registered voters, with the numbers reversing to Harris at 50% and Trump’s 49% among likely voters.
In a multicandidate race, Harris is the choice of 47% and Trump 43%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 6%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, independent Cornel West 1%, and Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry 0% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Harris 48%, Trump 43%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry 1%, and West 1%.
Kennedy suspended his campaign on Aug. 23, prior to the poll’s survey entering the field, but remains on the Wisconsin ballot. A large majority, 86%, said they had heard he had ended his campaign, while 14% had not heard.
In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% to Eric Hovde’s 48% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 52% and Hovde receives 47%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. When initially asked, Baldwin receives 48% and Hovde 44%, while 8% say they are undecided, among registered voters.
When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 51%, Hovde 45%, Phil Anderson (the “Disrupt the Corruption” party candidate) receives 2%, and Thomas Leager (of the “America First” party) receives 2% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 51% and Hovde 45%, with 2% for Anderson and 2% for Leager.
The survey was conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024, interviewing 822 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points, The survey included 738 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points. (All results are stated as percentages.)
While the race for president remains very close in Wisconsin, when asked who they think is likely to win in November, 48% say Harris will definitely or probably win, while 41% say Trump will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know. In July, by contrast, 39% said Harris would win, 51% said Trump would win, and 11% didn’t know.
In October 2013 we asked voters:
Which comes closer to your view about political divisions in Washington these days? Growing political divisions among elected officials reflect a more divided American society OR growing political divisions are mostly among elected officials and not American society in general?
In 2013, 38% said political divisions reflect a more divided society and 53% said divisions were mostly among elected officials.
Eleven years later, in September 2024, 65% say divisions are due to a more divided society, and 34% say divisions are mostly among elected officials.
Enthusiasm about voting this November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 1. The July enthusiasm held in September, as 63% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, similar to 61% in July. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in early September 2020, 65% were very enthusiastic.
Table 1: Enthusiasm to vote in November election
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Enthusiasm | |||
| Very | Somewhat | Not too | Not at all | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 63 | 20 | 12 | 6 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 61 | 21 | 15 | 4 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 46 | 21 | 19 | 14 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 47 | 22 | 18 | 12 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 25 | 17 | 9 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 46 | 28 | 19 | 6 |
| 8/30-9/3/20 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 6 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||
| Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
| Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
Enthusiasm has increased among Democrats. In the September survey, 72% say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting. That is substantially higher than in June, when 40% were “very enthusiastic.” The percentage of “very enthusiastic” Republicans rose from 57% in June to 64% in July and declined by 1 percentage point to 63% in September. Republicans held a substantial enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in June, which Democrats have now erased.
Independents are less enthusiastic than supporters of either party. Enthusiasm among independents rose from June to July but declined in September to a single point higher than in June. These results are shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Enthusiasm | |||
| Very | Somewhat | Not too | Not at all | |
| Democrat | ||||
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 72 | 19 | 8 | 2 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 62 | 19 | 15 | 4 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 40 | 24 | 20 | 16 |
| Independent | ||||
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 31 | 29 | 24 | 14 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 37 | 20 | 26 | 17 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 30 | 17 | 23 | 29 |
| Republican | ||||
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 63 | 19 | 11 | 7 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 64 | 22 | 12 | 1 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 57 | 19 | 16 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||
| Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
Those who are very or somewhat enthusiastic give Harris a lead, while those who are not too enthusiastic only slightly prefer Harris and those not at all enthusiastic give Trump a large margin, as shown in Table 3. This reverses the pattern when President Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate. Biden trailed Trump among the more enthusiastic voters but held an advantage among with those who were less enthusiastic.
Table 3: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm
Among registered voters
| Enthusiasm | Vote choice 2024 | |
| Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | |
| Very enthusiastic | 53 | 47 |
| Somewhat enthusiastic | 53 | 47 |
| Not too enthusiastic | 51 | 49 |
| Not at all enthusiastic | 35 | 64 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump? | ||
| Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||
Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 51% of registered voters, with 2% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. In July, Harris was seen favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 53%, with 6% who didn’t have an opinion.
In September, favorability toward Trump was virtually unchanged from July, with 43% favorable, 56% unfavorable, and less than 1% without an opinion. In July, his favorability was 44% and unfavorability 54%, with 2% lacking an opinion.
Favorability toward Biden remains low at 42% favorable with his unfavorable rating at 57%. In July, he was seen favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 57%.
Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” declined from July to September. For Harris and Trump, 11% had an unfavorable view of both in July and 8% in September. In September, 46% have a favorable view of Harris and an unfavorable view to Trump, while 42% have a favorable view of Trump and an unfavorable one of Harris. Less than 0.5% have a favorable view of both. Negative opinions of both Biden and Trump declined by 1 percentage point from July to September, to 13%.
Democratic vice-presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 37%, with 19% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.
Walz is seen quite favorably by Democrats and quite unfavorably by Republicans. Independents have a more favorable than unfavorable opinion of Walz. A substantial percentage of each group say they haven’t heard enough about Walz; this is especially so among independents, as shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Walz favorability, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Favorability | ||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven't heard enough | |
| Republican | 6 | 72 | 21 |
| Independent | 41 | 27 | 31 |
| Democrat | 84 | 3 | 13 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven't you heard enough about them yet? | |||
Walz is seen as an excellent pick for the vice-president slot by 29%, as a good choice by 18%, as a fair choice by 10%, and as a poor selection by 33%, with 11% who say they don’t know. Among Democrats, 90% rate the choice of Walz as excellent or good, while half of independents say it is excellent or good and most Republicans rate it poor, as shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Walz as VP pick, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Rate choice of Walz as VP | ||||
| Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | Don't know | |
| Republican | 3 | 4 | 11 | 67 | 15 |
| Independent | 26 | 24 | 13 | 21 | 16 |
| Democrat | 59 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||||
| Question: How would you rate Harris’ choice of Walz for vice president? Would you rate this choice as excellent, good, fair, or poor? | |||||
Republican vice-presidential nominee Ohio Sen. JD Vance is seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 47%, with 16% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans but is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially by Democrats, as shown in Table 6. Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and especially independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.
Table 6: Vance favorability, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Favorability | ||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven't heard enough | |
| Republican | 75 | 8 | 17 |
| Independent | 22 | 48 | 29 |
| Democrat | 1 | 90 | 9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven't you heard enough about them yet? | |||
Table 7 shows the favorability ratings, including those for third-party candidates for president and for Walz and Vance. Walz is the only candidate with a positive net favorability rating. Kennedy is the best known of the third-party candidates, all of whom are less well known than Harris or Trump.
Table 7: Favorability of all national candidates
Among registered voters
| Candidate | Favorability | |||
| Net fav | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven't heard enough | |
| Harris | -4 | 47 | 51 | 2 |
| Trump | -13 | 43 | 56 | 0 |
| Vance | -10 | 37 | 47 | 16 |
| Walz | 6 | 43 | 37 | 19 |
| Kennedy | -8 | 38 | 46 | 16 |
| Oliver | -5 | 1 | 6 | 90 |
| Stein | -19 | 9 | 28 | 62 |
| Terry | -4 | 1 | 5 | 91 |
| West | -10 | 9 | 19 | 70 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven't you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
Walz and Vance are about equally well known, with 19% saying they haven’t heard enough about Walz and 16% saying the same for Vance. Walz, though, is better known in the western parts of Wisconsin, where some areas are included in media markets for Minneapolis-St. Paul and Duluth-Superior. In addition, the La Crosse-Eau Claire market carries some Minnesota political advertising and news coverage. Among Wisconsin voters in those three media markets, 13% say they haven’t heard enough about Walz, compared to 20% in the rest of the state’s media markets who haven’t heard enough about him. He is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 54% in the western media markets, which are more Republican-leaning than the state as a whole, while in the other markets his favorable rating is 45% and his unfavorable rating is 35%.
The perceived characteristics of Harris and of Trump are shown in Table 8. More people see Trump as having strong accomplishments, and the two candidates are virtually tied on being a strong leader. More see Trump as too old to be president and as having behaved corruptly.
More people see Harris than Trump as intelligent and honest, as having the right temperament and communications skills, and as sharing the respondent’s values.
Table 8: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump
Among registered voters
| Candidate | How well phrase describes | |
| Very/somewhat well | Not too/not at all well | |
| Is too old to be president | ||
| Harris | 15 | 85 |
| Trump | 59 | 40 |
| Shares your values | ||
| Harris | 51 | 49 |
| Trump | 45 | 55 |
| Has behaved corruptly | ||
| Harris | 38 | 61 |
| Trump | 62 | 37 |
| Strong record of accomplishments | ||
| Harris | 46 | 53 |
| Trump | 53 | 47 |
| Has the right temperament to be president | ||
| Harris | 57 | 43 |
| Trump | 42 | 57 |
| Is a strong leader | ||
| Harris | 52 | 48 |
| Trump | 54 | 46 |
| Is intelligent | ||
| Harris | 58 | 42 |
| Trump | 53 | 47 |
| Is honest | ||
| Harris | 53 | 47 |
| Trump | 41 | 58 |
| Has communications skills to be president | ||
| Harris | 54 | 46 |
| Trump | 48 | 52 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||
| Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)? | ||
Table 9 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy, and, with a slight edge, handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, health care, and Medicare & Social Security.
Between 8% and 18% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.
Table 9: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
| Issue | Who better | |||
| Harris | Trump | Both about the same | Neither good | |
| Immigration and border security | 35 | 52 | 6 | 7 |
| Israel-Hamas war in Gaza | 37 | 45 | 8 | 10 |
| The economy | 42 | 50 | 5 | 3 |
| Foreign relations | 43 | 46 | 6 | 5 |
| Medicare & Social Security | 48 | 38 | 7 | 7 |
| Health care | 49 | 36 | 6 | 9 |
| Ensuring fair and accurate elections | 50 | 37 | 6 | 7 |
| Abortion policy | 51 | 36 | 5 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue? | ||||
Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue by a large margin, followed by abortion policy and immigration, as shown in Table 10.
Table 10: Most important issues
Among registered voters
| Response | Percent |
| The economy | 41 |
| Abortion policy | 15 |
| Immigration and border security | 12 |
| Medicare & Social Security | 9 |
| Ensuring fair and accurate elections | 9 |
| Health care | 5 |
| Foreign relations | 3 |
| The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | 2 |
| Don't know | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | |
Partisans differ on which issues are the most important, as shown in Table 11. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with Medicare & Social Security a distant second. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, with the economy just one percentage point lower, followed by Medicare & Social Security.
Table 11: Most important issues, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Issue | ||||||||
| The economy | Immigration and border security | Healthcare | Foreign relations | Abortion policy | Medicare & Social Security | The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | Ensuring fair and accurate elections | Don't know | |
| Republican | 55 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Independent | 42 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Democrat | 26 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||||||||
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | |||||||||
Support for deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally varies depending on the framing of the issue. A random half-sample of the survey was asked:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?
With this wording, 65% favor deportation and 35% are opposed.
The other half-sample was asked:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?
When worded this way, 49% favor deportations and 51% are opposed.
Two-thirds of registered voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and one third say it should be illegal in all or most cases. This has changed little since Roe v. Wade was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Abortion opinion trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Opinion | ||||
| Legal in all cases | Legal in most cases | Illegal in most cases | Illegal in all cases | Don't know | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 31 | 35 | 28 | 5 | 0 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 33 | 34 | 27 | 5 | 1 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 34 | 32 | 26 | 8 | 0 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 28 | 36 | 26 | 9 | 1 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 32 | 34 | 25 | 6 | 1 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 30 | 35 | 25 | 5 | 3 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 11 | 5 |
| 10/26-31/21 | 23 | 38 | 23 | 11 | 4 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 18 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 6 |
| 10/24-28/18 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 14 | 4 |
| 9/12-16/18 | 26 | 36 | 21 | 9 | 6 |
| 7/11-15/18 | 27 | 36 | 18 | 11 | 6 |
| 10/23-26/14 | 24 | 34 | 24 | 15 | 3 |
| 10/21-24/13 | 26 | 36 | 25 | 10 | 2 |
| 10/25-28/12 | 28 | 32 | 23 | 12 | 4 |
| 10/11-14/12 | 25 | 34 | 25 | 12 | 3 |
| 9/27-30/12 | 25 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 3 |
| 9/13-16/12 | 26 | 34 | 23 | 13 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? | |||||
Harris is seen as very liberal by 52%, and Trump is seen as very conservative by 53%. Harris is seen as moderate by 16%, while 10% see Trump that way.
For the vice-presidential candidates, 45% see Walz as very liberal, while 61% see Vance as very conservative. Twice the number see Walz as moderate, 21%, as see Vance this way, 10%.
In contrast to their views of the candidates, voters see themselves as closer to the center, with 34% describing themselves as moderate. Eleven percent say of themselves that they are very liberal and 14% say very conservative. The full set of results is shown in Table 13.
Table 13: Perceived candidate ideology
Among registered voters
| Candidate | Ideology | ||||
| Very conservative | Somewhat conservative | Moderate | Somewhat liberal | Very liberal | |
| Harris | 3 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 52 |
| Trump | 53 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Walz | 1 | 3 | 21 | 29 | 45 |
| Vance | 61 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| Self-description | 14 | 25 | 34 | 16 | 11 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||||
| Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…? | |||||
| Question: In general, would you describe your political views as... | |||||
Presidential vote is closely aligned with the respondent’s self-described ideology, though there is slightly more conservative support for Harris than liberal support for Trump, as shown in Table 14. Moderates provide a substantial majority for Harris. Overall, there are more conservatives, 39%, than liberals, 27%, while moderates make up 34%.
Table 14: Vote by political ideology
Among registered voters
| Self-description | Vote | |
| Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | |
| Very conservative | 8 | 92 |
| Somewhat conservative | 12 | 88 |
| Moderate | 63 | 37 |
| Somewhat liberal | 95 | 5 |
| Very liberal | 100 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||
| Question: In general, would you describe your political views as... | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]? | ||
The trend in vote preference when including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 15. The total third-party vote has declined from 22% in January to 9% in September, with Kennedy falling from 16% to 6% over that time among registered voters. The current level of total third-party voting in the survey is higher than the recent high in actual votes of 5.5% in 2016 and much higher than the 1.5% in 2020. Oliver was not included prior to the June poll and Terry appeared for the first time in July.
Table 15: Vote including third-party candidates
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Vote choice | |||||||
| Harris | Biden | Trump | Kennedy | Oliver | Stein | Terry | West | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 47 | NA | 43 | 6 | 1 | 1 | <.5 | 1 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 45 | NA | 43 | 8 | 1 | 1 | <.5 | <.5 |
| 6/12-20/24 | NA | 40 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 2 | NA | 4 |
| 4/3-10/24 | NA | 40 | 41 | 13 | NA | 3 | NA | 2 |
| 1/24-31/24 | NA | 37 | 40 | 16 | NA | 4 | NA | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West? | ||||||||
In the multicandidate ballot test in September, Kennedy receives more votes from Republicans, 8%, than from Democrats, 3%. Kennedy has consistently drawn more votes from Republicans than from Democrats throughout the year.
Independent voters are especially drawn to the third-party candidates. Kennedy receives 13% from independents, Oliver 3%, Stein 3%, Terry 2%, and West 1%. Among independents in the multicandidate race, Trump receives 28% and Harris 50%, a substantial shift from July.
These results are shown in Table 16.
Table 16: Multicandidate ballot by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||||||
| Harris | Trump | Kennedy | Oliver | Stein | Terry | West | Don't know | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | ||||||||
| Republican | 3 | 86 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent | 50 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Democrat | 94 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | ||||||||
| Republican | 4 | 85 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent | 35 | 38 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Democrat | 91 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West? | ||||||||
As shown in Table 17, among Democratic registered voters, Baldwin receives 99% and Hovde wins 1%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 94%, while Baldwin takes 4%. Independents favor Baldwin by 65% to Hovde’s 33%.
The vote among likely voters by party is virtually identical to that for registered voters.
Table 17: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde
September 2024
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||
| Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde | Haven't decided | |
| Registered voters | |||
| Republican | 4 | 94 | 1 |
| Independent | 65 | 33 | 1 |
| Democrat | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| Likely voters | |||
| Republican | 4 | 95 | 1 |
| Independent | 66 | 33 | 1 |
| Democrat | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||
| Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin?) | |||
The multicandidate Senate vote by party identification in September is shown in Table 18. Third-party candidate support is highest among independents and lowest among Democrats.
Table 18: Multicandidate Senate vote
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||||
| Poll dates | Democrat, Tammy Baldwin | Republican, Eric Hovde | Disrupt the Corruption Party's Phil Anderson | America First Party's Thomas Leager | Don't know | |
| Registered voters | ||||||
| Republican | 8/28-9/5/24 | 4 | 91 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Republican | 7/24-8/1/24 | 8 | 88 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Independent | 8/28-9/5/24 | 62 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Independent | 7/24-8/1/24 | 42 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Democrat | 8/28-9/5/24 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Democrat | 7/24-8/1/24 | 96 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Likely voters | ||||||
| Republican | 8/28-9/5/24 | 4 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Republican | 7/24-8/1/24 | 8 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Independent | 8/28-9/5/24 | 63 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Independent | 7/24-8/1/24 | 44 | 36 | 9 | 8 | 2 |
| Democrat | 8/28-9/5/24 | 98 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Democrat | 7/24-8/1/24 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: If the U.S. Senate ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde, Disrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil Anderson, or America First Party’s Thomas Leage? | ||||||
In the current survey, Baldwin’s favorable rating is 47% and her unfavorable rating 46%, with 7% who don’t know enough about her. During 2024, Baldwin’s net favorable rating has ranged from a low of -3 to a high of +5 and is currently +1.
Hovde is seen favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 43%, with 22% who haven’t heard enough. Those without an opinion of Hovde have declined from 82% in January to 22% in September. His net favorable rating has ranged from -2 in January to a low of -13 in July and is currently -9.
These favorability trends are shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Favorability to Senate candidates
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven't heard enough | |
| Tammy Baldwin | ||||
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 1 | 47 | 46 | 7 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 0 | 44 | 44 | 12 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 1 | 45 | 44 | 11 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 5 | 47 | 42 | 11 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -3 | 42 | 45 | 13 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | -2 | 41 | 43 | 15 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 3 | 40 | 37 | 22 |
| Eric Hovde | ||||
| 8/28-9/5/24 | -9 | 34 | 43 | 22 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | -13 | 24 | 37 | 38 |
| 6/12-20/24 | -9 | 23 | 32 | 44 |
| 4/3-10/24 | -5 | 19 | 24 | 56 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -2 | 7 | 9 | 82 |
| 6/8-13/23 | -4 | 4 | 8 | 85 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
The third-party candidates for Senate are unfamiliar to the vast majority of registered voters. Phil Anderson is seen favorably by 2%, unfavorably by 4%, 91% say they haven’t heard enough, and another 4% say they don’t know. Thomas Leager is seen favorably by 2%, unfavorably by 4%, with 90% who haven’t heard enough and 3% who don’t know.
Baldwin has her largest advantage over Hovde on being seen as committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin, with 61% saying this describes her, while 51% say it describes Hovde.
Baldwin has a smaller edge on being seen as someone who cares about people like the respondent, 54% to Hovde’s 46%.
The two are close to equal in being viewed as someone who will work to solve our national problems, with 53% saying this describes Baldwin and 50% saying this describes Hovde. The full results are shown in Table 20.
Table 20: How well does this phrase describe Baldwin or Hovde
Among registered voters
| Candidate | How well phrase describes | |
| Very/somewhat well | Not too/not at all well | |
| Is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin | ||
| Baldwin | 61 | 39 |
| Hovde | 51 | 48 |
| Is someone who cares about people like me | ||
| Baldwin | 54 | 46 |
| Hovde | 46 | 53 |
| Will work to solve our national problems | ||
| Baldwin | 53 | 46 |
| Hovde | 50 | 49 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||
| Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Tammy Baldwin)(Eric Hovde)? | ||
Baldwin is seen as very or somewhat liberal by 76%, and Hovde is seen as very or somewhat conservative by 81%. Baldwin is seen as moderate by 18% and Hovde as moderate by 14%. More see Hovde as very conservative, 50%, than see Baldwin as very liberal, 43%. The results, with the respondent’s self-description, are shown in Table 21.
Table 21: Perceived Senate candidate ideology
Among registered voters
| Candidate | Ideology | ||||
| Very conservative | Somewhat conservative | Moderate | Somewhat liberal | Very liberal | |
| Baldwin | 2 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 43 |
| Hovde | 50 | 31 | 14 | 2 | 1 |
| Self-description | 14 | 25 | 34 | 16 | 11 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||||
| Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…? | |||||
| Question: In general, would you describe your political views as... | |||||
Table 22 shows conservative voters strongly prefer Hovde, while liberal voters strongly prefer Baldwin. A substantial majority of moderate voters prefer Baldwin. There are slightly more conservatives for Baldwin than there are liberals for Hovde.
Table 22: Vote for senate by political ideology
Among registered voters
| Self-description | Vote | |
| Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde | |
| Very conservative | 6 | 94 |
| Somewhat conservative | 11 | 89 |
| Moderate | 65 | 32 |
| Somewhat liberal | 95 | 5 |
| Very liberal | 96 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||
| Question: In general, would you describe your political views as... | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between [Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat,] and [Eric Hovde, the Republican,] would you vote for [Tammy Baldwin], or for [Eric Hovde or haven’t you decided? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Baldwin], or for [Hovde]? | ||
Biden’s job approval in September stands at 41% with disapproval at 58%, little changed since June. Table 23 shows the recent trend in job approval.
Table 23: Biden job approval
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Job approval | |||||
| Total approve | Total disapprove | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 41 | 58 | 16 | 25 | 11 | 47 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 42 | 57 | 18 | 23 | 12 | 45 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 40 | 57 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 47 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 40 | 57 | 16 | 24 | 8 | 49 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 41 | 58 | 18 | 23 | 10 | 48 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 42 | 57 | 17 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | ||||||
Respondents were also asked whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In September, 46% approved and 54% disapproved, a decrease in approval of 2 percentage points since July. For comparison, Trump’s rating in the last Marquette Law School Poll survey before the 2020 election was 47% approve and 52% disapprove. The recent trend is shown in Table 24.
Table 24: Trump retrospective job approval
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Job approval | |||||
| Total approve | Total disapprove | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 46 | 54 | 31 | 16 | 8 | 46 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 48 | 51 | 32 | 16 | 8 | 43 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 47 | 52 | 30 | 16 | 8 | 44 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 47 | 52 | 26 | 21 | 9 | 43 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? | ||||||
While still somewhat negative, there has been some improvement in perceptions of how things are going in Wisconsin, with 46% saying the state is headed in the right direction as of September, up from 36% last November. Those saying the state is off on the wrong track stands at 53% in September, down from 62% almost a year ago. The full trend is shown in Table 25.
Table 25: Direction of the state
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Direction | |
| Right direction | Wrong track | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 46 | 53 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 45 | 55 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 41 | 59 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 42 | 57 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 36 | 62 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||
| Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? | ||
The national economy is seen as excellent by only 3% of Wisconsin voters, as good by 32%, as not so good by 35%, and as poor by 30%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 26.
Table 26: Views of the national economy
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | National economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 3 | 32 | 35 | 30 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 33 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 4 | 30 | 34 | 32 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 5 | 28 | 38 | 28 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 6 | 32 | 34 | 28 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 3 | 24 | 36 | 37 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days? | ||||
Respondents’ assessments of their family’s financial situation are mixed: 44% say they are living comfortably, with 38% who say they are just getting by and 17% who say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 27. The percentage (assessing themselves) as living comfortably has declined by 4 percentage points since November 2023, while the percentage just getting by has increased by 2 percentage points. The percentage struggling is up 2 percentage points since November 2023.
Table 27: Family financial situation
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Financial situation | ||
| Living comfortably | Just getting by | Struggling | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 44 | 38 | 17 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 44 | 40 | 15 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 46 | 37 | 17 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 45 | 40 | 15 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 38 | 13 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 48 | 36 | 15 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||
| Question: Thinking about your family's financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? | |||
Table 28 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers. Evers’s approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In July, Evers’s approval was also 51% and disapproval was 44%.
Table 28: Approval of Tony Evers’s job performance
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Approval | ||
| Approve | Disapprove | Don't know | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 51 | 44 | 5 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 51 | 44 | 5 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 51 | 44 | 6 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 52 | 44 | 3 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 51 | 44 | 5 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 53 | 46 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? | |||
Favorability to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is shown in Table 29. Both favorable and unfavorable ratings of Johnson ticked up from July to September, but overall opinion has been stable over the past year.
Table 29: Ron Johnson favorability
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | ||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven't heard enough | |
| 8/28-9/5/24 | 39 | 49 | 12 |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 36 | 47 | 17 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 38 | 50 | 11 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 39 | 51 | 11 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 38 | 52 | 9 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 40 | 50 | 10 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024 | |||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven't you heard enough about them yet? | |||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024, interviewing 822 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The sample contains 738 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.
The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 605 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration lists and 217 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 691 respondents, and with 131 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.
The partisan makeup of the sample is 35% Republican, 32% Democratic and 32% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.
The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.
Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu.
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