Oct. 30, 2024
Also:
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 50% of likely voters and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 49%, in a head-to-head matchup. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. In the previous poll in late September, Harris received 52% and Trump 48% among likely voters.
Keeping initially undecided voters as a separate category, Harris holds 48% of likely voters, Trump gets 47%, and 5% are undecided.
In a multicandidate race, Harris also leads, with 46% to Trump’s 44%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 5%, the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s Claudia De la Cruz 0%, Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver 2%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry 0%, and independent Cornel West 1%, among likely voters. Kennedy suspended his campaign on Aug. 23 but remains on the Wisconsin ballot.
In a combined sample of all four Wisconsin surveys since Harris entered the race in July, she wins a majority of Stein, West, and De la Cruz supporters when they are asked to choose between Harris and Trump. A majority of Kennedy, Oliver, and Terry supporters back Trump when asked to choose.
In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 51% to Eric Hovde’s 49% among likely voters. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. When initially undecided voters are kept as a separate category, Baldwin is the choice of 48% and Hovde the choice of 45%, with 7% still undecided.
When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 49% and Hovde 47% among likely voters. Phil Anderson, the “Disrupt the Corruption” Party candidate, receives 2% and Thomas Leager, of the “America First” Party, receives 1%.
The survey was conducted Oct. 16-24, 2024, interviewing 834 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, and 753 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the same as for registered voters. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)
Early voting
There is a large difference in vote choice between those planning to vote on Election Day or to vote early in-person—groups that favor Trump—and those voting absentee by mail—who strongly favor Harris. This is shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Vote choice, by early voting
Among likely voters
|
When voting |
Vote choice |
|
|
Kamala Harris |
Donald Trump |
|
|
In person on Election Day |
44 |
56 |
|
In person early voting |
47 |
52 |
|
Absentee by mail |
70 |
30 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided? |
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|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]? |
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When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 45% say Harris will definitely or probably win, 37% say Trump will definitely or probably win, and 17% say they don’t know, among registered voters. Since late September, there has been an increase in the percentage saying they don’t know who will win, with a decline in the percentage saying Harris or Trump. The trend since July is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Who is likely to win the November election
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Who is likely to win? |
||
|
Harris |
Trump |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
45 |
37 |
17 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
50 |
39 |
11 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
48 |
41 |
11 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
38 |
51 |
11 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|
Question: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election: [Kamala Harris, the Democrat] or [Donald Trump, the Republican]? |
Group voting
Table 3 shows relative support among several demographic groups. This table includes all registered voters interviewed in the four polls from July to October in order to provide substantial sample sizes for each group. In this pooled sample, Harris is supported by 51% and Trump by 49% among both registered and likely voters.
There are large differences in vote margins within each demographic category, including gender, age, race, urban-rural, education, and religion, with extremely Republican subgroups and extremely Democratic ones.
Table 3: Vote choice among demographic groups
Among registered voters, pooled July-October
|
Group |
Vote choice |
|||
|
Share of RVs (%) |
Net Harris minus Trump |
Kamala Harris |
Donald Trump |
|
|
Gender |
||||
|
Male |
48 |
-12 |
44 |
56 |
|
Female |
51 |
14 |
57 |
43 |
|
Age |
||||
|
18-29 |
17 |
22 |
61 |
39 |
|
30-44 |
22 |
0 |
50 |
50 |
|
45-59 |
24 |
-10 |
45 |
55 |
|
60+ |
36 |
2 |
51 |
49 |
|
Race & Ethnicity |
||||
|
White |
90 |
-1 |
49 |
50 |
|
Black |
3 |
64 |
82 |
18 |
|
Hispanic |
4 |
6 |
53 |
47 |
|
Other |
4 |
19 |
59 |
40 |
|
Urban-Rural |
||||
|
Principal city |
29 |
36 |
68 |
32 |
|
Suburban core |
32 |
-2 |
49 |
51 |
|
Exurbs and large towns |
22 |
-17 |
41 |
58 |
|
Rural and small towns |
17 |
-23 |
38 |
61 |
|
Education |
||||
|
Non-college |
62 |
-7 |
46 |
53 |
|
College |
38 |
18 |
59 |
41 |
|
Religion |
||||
|
Born-again Protestant |
14 |
-60 |
20 |
80 |
|
Mainline Protestant |
27 |
0 |
50 |
50 |
|
Roman Catholic |
28 |
-13 |
43 |
56 |
|
No religion |
26 |
51 |
75 |
24 |
|
Other religion |
5 |
18 |
59 |
41 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, pooled July-October |
||||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided? |
||||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]? |
||||
More on the gender gap within demographic groups
The gender gap has been prominent in recent elections and is quite clear within each demographic group, as shown in Table 4. In the combined July-October polls, women constitute 51% of registered voters and men are 48%, with fewer than 1% identifying their gender as something else. The gender gap is especially pronounced among other demographic categories:
While the size of the gender gap varies within groups, women are more supportive of Harris than men in every demographic group presented, except that of rural areas and small towns.
Table 4: Vote choice among demographic groups, by gender
Among registered voters, pooled July-October
|
Group |
Vote choice |
|||
|
Gender |
Net Harris minus Trump |
Kamala Harris |
Donald Trump |
|
|
Age |
||||
|
18-29 |
Male |
-1 |
49 |
50 |
|
18-29 |
Female |
36 |
68 |
32 |
|
30-44 |
Male |
-8 |
46 |
54 |
|
30-44 |
Female |
10 |
55 |
45 |
|
45-59 |
Male |
-36 |
32 |
68 |
|
45-59 |
Female |
14 |
57 |
43 |
|
60+ |
Male |
-4 |
48 |
52 |
|
60+ |
Female |
7 |
53 |
46 |
|
Race |
||||
|
White |
Male |
-13 |
43 |
56 |
|
White |
Female |
10 |
55 |
45 |
|
Non-White |
Male |
1 |
50 |
49 |
|
Non-White |
Female |
48 |
74 |
26 |
|
Urban-Rural |
||||
|
Principal city |
Male |
21 |
60 |
39 |
|
Principal city |
Female |
46 |
73 |
27 |
|
Suburban core |
Male |
-21 |
39 |
60 |
|
Suburban core |
Female |
18 |
59 |
41 |
|
Exurbs and large towns |
Male |
-27 |
36 |
63 |
|
Exurbs and large towns |
Female |
-5 |
47 |
52 |
|
Rural and small towns |
Male |
-22 |
39 |
61 |
|
Rural and small towns |
Female |
-24 |
38 |
62 |
|
Education |
||||
|
Non-college |
Male |
-20 |
40 |
60 |
|
Non-college |
Female |
2 |
51 |
49 |
|
College |
Male |
0 |
50 |
50 |
|
College |
Female |
36 |
68 |
32 |
|
Religion |
||||
|
Born-again Protestant |
Male |
-64 |
18 |
82 |
|
Born-again Protestant |
Female |
-56 |
22 |
78 |
|
Mainline Protestant |
Male |
-11 |
44 |
55 |
|
Mainline Protestant |
Female |
10 |
55 |
45 |
|
Roman Catholic |
Male |
-31 |
34 |
65 |
|
Roman Catholic |
Female |
7 |
53 |
46 |
|
No religion |
Male |
35 |
67 |
32 |
|
No religion |
Female |
64 |
82 |
18 |
|
Other religion |
Male |
6 |
53 |
47 |
|
Other religion |
Female |
20 |
60 |
40 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, pooled July-October |
||||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided? |
||||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]? |
||||
Enthusiasm
Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 5, and has remained stable since September. In the current survey, 66% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, similar to 67% in late September. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in late October 2020, 68% were very enthusiastic.
Table 5: Enthusiasm to vote in the November election
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Enthusiasm |
|||
|
Very |
Somewhat |
Not too |
Not at all |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
66 |
18 |
12 |
4 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
67 |
18 |
12 |
3 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
63 |
20 |
12 |
6 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
61 |
21 |
15 |
4 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
46 |
21 |
19 |
14 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
47 |
22 |
18 |
12 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
49 |
25 |
17 |
9 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
46 |
28 |
19 |
6 |
|
10/21-25/20 |
68 |
21 |
5 |
6 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
||||
|
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
||||
Enthusiasm among Democrats is slightly higher than among Republicans, with 75% of Democrats in this poll saying they are very enthusiastic and 66% of Republicans saying the same of themselves. This represents an increase of enthusiasm among Democrats, from 71% in late September, with little change for Republicans, who were at 67% in the previous poll.
Enthusiasm among independents has fluctuated inconsistently in recent polls, with 36% very enthusiastic now, down from 50% in the late September poll to a level closer to the polls during the previous months. Independents have consistently shown much less enthusiasm than partisans. The full trends by party are shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Enthusiasm to vote in the November election, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Enthusiasm |
|||
|
Very |
Somewhat |
Not too |
Not at all |
|
|
Democrat |
||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
75 |
14 |
8 |
3 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
71 |
20 |
8 |
2 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
72 |
19 |
8 |
2 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
62 |
19 |
15 |
4 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
40 |
24 |
20 |
16 |
|
Independent |
||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
36 |
36 |
18 |
9 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
50 |
19 |
19 |
12 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
31 |
29 |
24 |
14 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
37 |
20 |
26 |
17 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
30 |
17 |
23 |
29 |
|
Republican |
||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
66 |
17 |
13 |
3 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
67 |
17 |
13 |
3 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
63 |
19 |
11 |
7 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
64 |
22 |
12 |
1 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
57 |
19 |
16 |
8 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
||||
Unlike earlier polling, there is little difference in vote choice by level of enthusiasm, as shown in Table 7, reflecting the previously mentioned evening out of enthusiasm differences by party.
Table 7: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm
Among registered voters
|
Enthusiasm |
Vote choice 2024 |
|
|
Kamala Harris |
Donald Trump |
|
|
Very/somewhat |
50 |
49 |
|
Not too/not at all |
51 |
47 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided? |
||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump? |
||
|
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? |
||
President Biden and Trump presidential job approval
President Joe Biden’s job approval stands at 42%, with disapproval at 56%. There has been little change in his approval rating throughout the past year, including since he withdrew from the presidential race in July. His approval rating remains below that of Trump’s retrospective job approval.
Table 8 shows the recent trend in job approval.
Table 8: Biden job approval
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Job approval |
|||||
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Somewhat approve |
Somewhat disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
42 |
56 |
15 |
27 |
8 |
48 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
43 |
56 |
15 |
28 |
9 |
48 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
41 |
58 |
16 |
25 |
11 |
47 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
42 |
57 |
18 |
23 |
12 |
45 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
40 |
57 |
16 |
24 |
10 |
47 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
40 |
57 |
16 |
24 |
8 |
49 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
41 |
58 |
18 |
23 |
10 |
48 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
42 |
57 |
17 |
25 |
12 |
44 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? |
||||||
Respondents were also asked whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In October, 47% approve and 52% disapprove, the same as in late September. That is also the same as Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School Poll survey before the 2020 election. His job approval is viewed the same now as then, neither better nor worse. The recent trend is shown in Table 9.
Table 9: Trump retrospective job approval
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Job approval |
|||||
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Somewhat approve |
Somewhat disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
47 |
52 |
33 |
14 |
8 |
44 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
47 |
52 |
35 |
12 |
8 |
45 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
46 |
54 |
31 |
16 |
8 |
46 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
48 |
51 |
32 |
16 |
8 |
43 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
47 |
52 |
30 |
16 |
8 |
44 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
47 |
52 |
26 |
21 |
9 |
43 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? |
||||||
Favorability to presidential and vice-presidential candidates
Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 52% of registered voters. In the prior poll, Harris was seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50%. The favorability trend for Harris since July is shown in Table 10. Her net favorable ratings improved from the first (July) survey, as shown in Table 10. Favorability to Harris was not asked earlier in the year, before she became a presidential candidate.
Table 10: Favorability to Harris
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net fav |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
-5 |
47 |
52 |
2 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
-3 |
47 |
50 |
3 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
-4 |
47 |
51 |
2 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-12 |
41 |
53 |
6 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
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For Trump, 43% have a favorable opinion and 57% have an unfavorable opinion, a 1-point dip in favorable and 2-point increase in unfavorable opinion since late September. His net favorable ratings have improved from those of late 2023, as shown in Table 11.
Table 11: Favorability to Trump
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net fav |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
-14 |
43 |
57 |
0 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
-11 |
44 |
55 |
1 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
-13 |
43 |
56 |
0 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-10 |
44 |
54 |
2 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
-16 |
41 |
57 |
2 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
-13 |
43 |
56 |
1 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
-18 |
40 |
58 |
1 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
-24 |
37 |
61 |
2 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
||||
Favorability toward Biden remains low at 41% favorable with his unfavorable rating at 57%. The trend for Biden since late 2023 is shown in Table 12. Biden’s net favorability, which was better than Trump’s a year ago, has remained slightly worse than Trump’s since April.
Table 12: Favorability to Biden
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net fav |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
-16 |
41 |
57 |
2 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
-14 |
42 |
56 |
2 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
-15 |
42 |
57 |
1 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-17 |
40 |
57 |
2 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
-18 |
40 |
58 |
1 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
-19 |
40 |
59 |
1 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
-17 |
41 |
58 |
1 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
-14 |
42 |
56 |
2 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
||||
The percentage of those with unfavorable opinions of both Trump and Harris, the so-called “double haters,” increased slightly from late September to October. For Harris and Trump, 9% now have an unfavorable view of both, up from 6% at the end of September. In the current poll, 46% have a favorable view of Harris and an unfavorable view of Trump, while 43% have a favorable view of Trump and an unfavorable one of Harris. Less than 0.5% have a favorable view of both. The trend in combined favorability is shown in Table 13.
Table 13: Combined favorability to Harris and Trump
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability to both Harris and Trump |
||||
|
KH fav, DT fav |
KH fav, DT unfav |
KH unfav, DT fav |
KH unfav, DT unfav |
DK KH or DT |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
0 |
46 |
43 |
9 |
2 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
0 |
47 |
43 |
6 |
3 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
0 |
46 |
42 |
8 |
3 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
1 |
40 |
41 |
11 |
7 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
|||||
Vice-presidential candidates
Democratic vice-presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 43%, with 14% saying they haven’t heard enough. Walz’s net favorability has declined from +7 in late September to 0 in the current poll. His trend is shown in Table 14.
Table 14: Favorability to Walz
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net fav |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
0 |
43 |
43 |
14 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
7 |
45 |
38 |
16 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
6 |
43 |
37 |
19 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
||||
Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance is seen favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 46%, with 11% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance’s net favorability has improved by 9 points since late September. The trend is shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Favorability to Vance
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net fav |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
-4 |
42 |
46 |
11 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
-13 |
38 |
51 |
11 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
-10 |
37 |
47 |
16 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-10 |
31 |
41 |
28 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
||||
Favorability of all presidential and vice-presidential candidates
Table 16 shows the favorability ratings of the aforementioned candidates in addition to the third-party candidates for president. Kennedy is the best known of the third-party candidates, all of whom are less well known than Harris or Trump.
Table 16: Favorability of all national candidates
Among registered voters
|
Candidate |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net fav |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
Harris |
-5 |
47 |
52 |
2 |
|
Trump |
-14 |
43 |
57 |
0 |
|
Vance |
-4 |
42 |
46 |
11 |
|
Walz |
0 |
43 |
43 |
14 |
|
Kennedy |
-6 |
39 |
45 |
15 |
|
De la Cruz |
-6 |
3 |
9 |
83 |
|
Oliver |
-3 |
2 |
5 |
87 |
|
Stein |
-22 |
7 |
29 |
61 |
|
Terry |
-5 |
1 |
6 |
87 |
|
West |
-9 |
8 |
17 |
71 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
||||
Characteristics of Harris and Trump
The perceived characteristics of Harris and Trump are shown in Table 17. More people see Trump as having strong accomplishments and as being a strong leader than see Harris these ways. More also see Trump as too old to be president and as having behaved corruptly.
More people see Harris as intelligent, as honest, and as with the right temperament than see Trump these ways. Slightly more also see Harris as sharing their values.
Table 17: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump
Among registered voters
|
Candidate |
How well phrase describes |
|
|
Very/somewhat well |
Not too/not at all well |
|
|
Is too old to be president |
||
|
Harris |
13 |
86 |
|
Trump |
57 |
43 |
|
Shares your values |
||
|
Harris |
50 |
50 |
|
Trump |
47 |
53 |
|
Has behaved corruptly |
||
|
Harris |
35 |
64 |
|
Trump |
62 |
37 |
|
Strong record of accomplishments |
||
|
Harris |
45 |
55 |
|
Trump |
53 |
47 |
|
Has the right temperament to be president |
||
|
Harris |
56 |
44 |
|
Trump |
45 |
55 |
|
Is a strong leader |
||
|
Harris |
50 |
50 |
|
Trump |
55 |
45 |
|
Is intelligent |
||
|
Harris |
59 |
40 |
|
Trump |
53 |
46 |
|
Is honest |
||
|
Harris |
51 |
49 |
|
Trump |
41 |
59 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||
|
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)? |
||
Issues in the presidential campaign
Table 18 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, health care, and on Medicare and Social Security.
A total of between 10% and 19% say either that both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.
Table 18: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
|
Issue |
Who better |
|||
|
Harris |
Trump |
Both about the same |
Neither good |
|
|
Immigration and border security |
37 |
51 |
5 |
7 |
|
Israel-Hamas war |
33 |
47 |
7 |
12 |
|
The economy |
40 |
50 |
6 |
4 |
|
Foreign relations |
43 |
47 |
4 |
7 |
|
Medicare & Social Security |
48 |
38 |
8 |
6 |
|
Health care |
48 |
38 |
8 |
5 |
|
Ensuring fair and accurate elections |
48 |
37 |
6 |
8 |
|
Abortion policy |
53 |
35 |
5 |
7 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue? |
||||
Most important issues
Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue by a large margin, followed by abortion policy and immigration, as shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Most important issues
Among registered voters
|
|
|
|
Response |
Percent |
|
The economy |
38 |
|
Abortion policy |
15 |
|
Immigration and border security |
13 |
|
Medicare & Social Security |
9 |
|
Ensuring fair and accurate elections |
9 |
|
Health care |
6 |
|
Foreign relations |
3 |
|
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza |
3 |
|
Don't know |
3 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|
|
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? |
|
Looking back: The economy was seen as the most important issue by 33% in April, while immigration was most important to 21% that month. Both have been relatively stable since July, with around 38% saying the economy is the most important issue and around 13% saying immigration is the most important. Abortion policy has been rated as the most important by about 15% since June, a slight increase from 13% in April.
Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in the current poll in Table 20. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important, with health care a distant second. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, with the economy second.
Table 20: Most important issues, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Issue |
||||||||
|
The economy |
Immigration and border security |
Health care |
Foreign relations |
Abortion policy |
Medicare & Social Security |
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza |
Ensuring fair and accurate elections |
Don't know |
|
|
Republican |
53 |
25 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
|
Independent |
40 |
8 |
11 |
4 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
|
Democrat |
21 |
1 |
11 |
4 |
26 |
16 |
2 |
14 |
5 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||||||||
|
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? |
|||||||||
Who is better on the respondent’s most important issue
Trump is seen as better on the issue the respondent says is most important for them by 46%, while Harris is seen as better on respondent’s most important issue by 43% and 7% don’t see a difference between the candidates on the respondent’s most important issue. Four percent failed to identify an issue most important to them.
Democrats are slightly less likely to say Harris is better on their most important issue than Republicans are to say the same of Trump, while independents are more likely to say Harris is better on their most important issue. A large percentage of independents see no difference between Harris and Trump on their most important issue, while 7% of Democrats don’t see either candidate as better in this regard. Almost all Republicans see a difference. These results are shown in Table 21.
Table 21: Which candidate is better on respondent’s most important issue, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Who better |
||||
|
Harris |
Trump |
Both about the same |
Neither good |
No most important issue |
|
|
Republican |
6 |
89 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Independent |
42 |
30 |
2 |
20 |
7 |
|
Democrat |
85 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||||
|
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue? |
|||||
|
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? |
|||||
Abortion
Sixty-three percent of registered voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 37% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. This has changed little since June 2022, when Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision which made abortion legal in all 50 states, was overturned. The full trend is shown in Table 22.
Table 22: Abortion opinion
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Opinion |
||||
|
Legal in all cases |
Legal in most cases |
Illegal in most cases |
Illegal in all cases |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
27 |
36 |
31 |
6 |
0 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
34 |
35 |
27 |
5 |
0 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
31 |
35 |
28 |
5 |
0 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
33 |
34 |
27 |
5 |
1 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
34 |
32 |
26 |
8 |
0 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
28 |
36 |
26 |
9 |
1 |
|
6/8-13/23 |
32 |
34 |
25 |
6 |
1 |
|
8/10-15/22 |
30 |
35 |
25 |
5 |
3 |
|
6/14-20/22 |
27 |
31 |
24 |
11 |
5 |
|
10/26-31/21 |
23 |
38 |
23 |
11 |
4 |
|
2/19-23/20 |
18 |
37 |
22 |
15 |
6 |
|
10/24-28/18 |
26 |
29 |
24 |
14 |
4 |
|
9/12-16/18 |
26 |
36 |
21 |
9 |
6 |
|
7/11-15/18 |
27 |
36 |
18 |
11 |
6 |
|
10/23-26/14 |
24 |
34 |
24 |
15 |
3 |
|
10/21-24/13 |
26 |
36 |
25 |
10 |
2 |
|
10/25-28/12 |
28 |
32 |
23 |
12 |
4 |
|
10/11-14/12 |
25 |
34 |
25 |
12 |
3 |
|
9/27-30/12 |
25 |
35 |
23 |
12 |
3 |
|
9/13-16/12 |
26 |
34 |
23 |
13 |
3 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||||
|
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? |
|||||
Opinion on deporting immigrants
There has been a considerable shift since 2022 among Wisconsinites in opinion on deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally, with support for a path to citizenship declining and the group favoring requiring “undocumented immigrants” to leave the U.S. doubling in size since late 2022. Table 23 shows the trend on this question since early 2017. Opinion was relatively stable through the Trump administration and first two years of the Biden administration but shifted in 2024 as Trump called for deportation of immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
Table 23: Undocumented immigrants, opinion
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Opinion |
|||
|
Stay and apply for citizenship |
Stay as temporary guest workers |
Required to leave jobs and U.S. |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
50 |
16 |
33 |
1 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
49 |
16 |
30 |
5 |
|
4/19-24/22 |
64 |
16 |
16 |
4 |
|
2/19-23/20 |
67 |
15 |
13 |
3 |
|
10/24-28/18 |
65 |
15 |
15 |
3 |
|
9/12-16/18 |
68 |
15 |
14 |
3 |
|
2/25-3/1/18 |
71 |
14 |
9 |
4 |
|
3/13-16/17 |
66 |
17 |
14 |
2 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? |
||||
There is greater support for deportation of immigrants illegally in the U.S. when the question is worded differently from the foregoing, as:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?
With this wording a sizable majority, 60%, favor deportations, while 39% are opposed. Support has declined slightly from the high point in early September, as shown in Table 24. This wording has been asked of a random half-sample from July to October.
Table 24: Deport immigrants in U.S. illegally
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Opinion |
||
|
Favor |
Oppose |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
60 |
39 |
1 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
65 |
35 |
0 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
64 |
34 |
2 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
56 |
39 |
5 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||
|
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries? |
|||
A modified wording on deportation finds somewhat less support when longtime workers are mentioned:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?
This wording, asked of a random half-sample, finds 39% in favor and 60% opposed to deportations, essentially the reverse of the question where length of residence, employment, and no criminal record are not mentioned. The trend for this question is shown in Table 25.
Table 25: Deport immigrants in U.S. illegally who have jobs and no criminal record
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Opinion |
||
|
Favor |
Oppose |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
39 |
60 |
0 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
49 |
51 |
0 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
44 |
55 |
0 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||
|
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record? |
|||
These three versions on opinion about immigrants, with three rather different results, show that opinion on deportation is highly dependent on the framing of the issue.
Perceived candidate ideology
Harris is seen as very liberal by 50%, and Trump is seen as very conservative by 49%. Harris is seen as moderate by 15%, while 8% see Trump that way.
There has been little change in these perceptions since early September, with 2 percentage points fewer saying that Harris is very liberal and a decline of 4 percentage points in those saying that Trump is very conservative.
In contrast to the candidates, voters see themselves as closer to the center: 32% describe themselves as moderate, 11% as very liberal, and 14% as very conservative. Self-described ideology has also remained stable over the three polls. The full set of results is shown in in Table 26.
Table 26: Perceived candidate ideology
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Ideology |
||||
|
Very conservative |
Somewhat conservative |
Moderate |
Somewhat liberal |
Very liberal |
|
|
Harris |
|||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
3 |
2 |
15 |
29 |
50 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
2 |
2 |
15 |
30 |
51 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
3 |
2 |
16 |
27 |
52 |
|
Trump |
|||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
49 |
36 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
52 |
34 |
10 |
1 |
2 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
53 |
32 |
10 |
2 |
3 |
|
Self-description |
|||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
14 |
27 |
32 |
17 |
11 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
12 |
25 |
34 |
18 |
11 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
14 |
25 |
34 |
16 |
11 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||||
|
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…? |
|||||
|
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as... |
|||||
Vote, by party ID
Table 27 shows presidential vote by party identification in the polls since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate. Partisans are strongly aligned with their party’s nominee, with Democrats slightly more so than Republicans. Republican crossover to Harris has remained in mid-single digits, while Democratic crossover to Trump is in low single digits. These results have been consistent in all four polls.
Independents, in contrast to partisans, have shifted from July, when 54% preferred Trump to 44% for Harris. That balance shifted sharply in early September, with independents supporting Harris 60% to 40% for Trump, and in late September independents backed Harris 61% to 39% for Trump. In October, independent support for Harris declined slightly to 57%, with Trump at 42%.
Table 27: Vote for Harris or Trump, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Vote choice |
|
|
Kamala Harris |
Donald Trump |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
||
|
Republican |
7 |
92 |
|
Independent |
57 |
42 |
|
Democrat |
97 |
3 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
||
|
Republican |
6 |
94 |
|
Independent |
61 |
39 |
|
Democrat |
99 |
1 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
||
|
Republican |
5 |
95 |
|
Independent |
60 |
40 |
|
Democrat |
100 |
0 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
||
|
Republican |
6 |
94 |
|
Independent |
44 |
54 |
|
Democrat |
97 |
2 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided? |
||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]? |
||
Senate vote, by party identification
As shown in Table 28, among Democratic registered voters, Baldwin receives 97% and Hovde 3%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 93%, while Baldwin takes 7%. Independents favor Baldwin by 64% to Hovde’s 36%.
Table 28: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Vote choice |
|
|
Tammy Baldwin |
Eric Hovde |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
||
|
Republican |
7 |
93 |
|
Independent |
64 |
36 |
|
Democrat |
97 |
3 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
||
|
Republican |
8 |
91 |
|
Independent |
62 |
37 |
|
Democrat |
99 |
1 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
||
|
Republican |
4 |
94 |
|
Independent |
65 |
33 |
|
Democrat |
99 |
1 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
||
|
Republican |
11 |
88 |
|
Independent |
52 |
46 |
|
Democrat |
98 |
2 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
||
|
Republican |
12 |
88 |
|
Independent |
52 |
48 |
|
Democrat |
95 |
5 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided? |
||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin?) |
||
The multi-candidate Senate vote by party identification in October is shown in Table 29. Third-party candidate support is highest among independents, with little such support from Republicans or Democrats.
Table 29: Multicandidate Senate vote
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Vote choice |
||||
|
Baldwin |
Hovde |
Anderson |
Leager |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
|||||
|
Republican |
6 |
90 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Independent |
58 |
29 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
|
Democrat |
96 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
|||||
|
Republican |
5 |
91 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Independent |
60 |
30 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
|
Democrat |
98 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
|||||
|
Republican |
4 |
91 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
Independent |
62 |
24 |
5 |
7 |
1 |
|
Democrat |
99 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
|||||
|
Republican |
8 |
88 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
Independent |
42 |
34 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
|
Democrat |
96 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||||
|
Question: If the U.S. Senate ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde, Disrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil Anderson, or America First Party’s Thomas Leage? |
|||||
Senate candidate favorability
In the current survey, Baldwin’s favorable rating is 45% and her unfavorable rating is 50%, with 5% who don’t know enough about her. This is Baldwin’s lowest net favorability rating, -5, of the election cycle, a period beginning in June 2023.
Hovde is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 48%, with 15% who haven’t heard enough. His net favorable rating declined since late September from -9 to -12, his second lowest net rating in the period beginning in June 2023.
These favorability trends are shown in Table 30.
Table 30: Favorability to Senate candidates
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net favorable |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
Tammy Baldwin |
||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
-5 |
45 |
50 |
5 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
0 |
47 |
47 |
6 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
1 |
47 |
46 |
7 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
0 |
44 |
44 |
12 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
1 |
45 |
44 |
11 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
5 |
47 |
42 |
11 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
-3 |
42 |
45 |
13 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
-2 |
41 |
43 |
15 |
|
6/8-13/23 |
3 |
40 |
37 |
22 |
|
Eric Hovde |
||||
|
10/16-24/24 |
-12 |
36 |
48 |
15 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
-9 |
36 |
45 |
18 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
-9 |
34 |
43 |
22 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-13 |
24 |
37 |
38 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
-9 |
23 |
32 |
44 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
-5 |
19 |
24 |
56 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
-2 |
7 |
9 |
82 |
|
6/8-13/23 |
-4 |
4 |
8 |
85 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
||||
Perceived characteristics of Senate candidates
Baldwin has her largest advantage over Hovde in being seen as someone who cares about people like the respondent, 53% to Hovde’s 48%. In late September, 56% said Baldwin cares about people like them, while 47% said Hovde cares about people like them.
Baldwin also has a slight advantage in being seen as committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin, with 56% saying this describes her, while 52% say it describes Hovde. The gap has narrowed since late September when 60% said this described Baldwin and 51% said it described Hovde.
Hovde has taken a very slight lead in being seen as someone who will work to solve national problems, with 53% saying this describes him and 52% saying this describes Baldwin. In late September, 50% said it described Hovde and 54% said it described Baldwin. The full results are shown in Table 31.
Table 31: How well does this phrase describe Baldwin or Hovde
Among registered voters
|
Candidate |
How well phrase describes |
|
|
Very/somewhat well |
Not too/not at all well |
|
|
Is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin |
||
|
Baldwin |
56 |
43 |
|
Hovde |
52 |
47 |
|
Is someone who cares about people like me |
||
|
Baldwin |
53 |
46 |
|
Hovde |
48 |
52 |
|
Will work to solve our national problems |
||
|
Baldwin |
52 |
48 |
|
Hovde |
53 |
47 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||
|
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Tammy Baldwin)(Eric Hovde)? |
||
Perceived Senate candidate ideology
Baldwin is seen as very or somewhat liberal by 81%, and Hovde is seen as very or somewhat conservative by 87%. Baldwin is seen as moderate by 16% and Hovde as moderate by 8%. More see Hovde as very conservative, 57%, than see Baldwin as very liberal, 50%. The results, with the respondents’ self-description, are shown in Table 32.
Table 32: Perceived Senate candidate ideology
Among registered voters
|
Candidate |
Ideology |
||||
|
Very conservative |
Somewhat conservative |
Moderate |
Somewhat liberal |
Very liberal |
|
|
Baldwin |
2 |
1 |
16 |
31 |
50 |
|
Hovde |
57 |
30 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
|
Self-description |
14 |
27 |
32 |
17 |
11 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||||
|
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…? |
|||||
|
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as... |
|||||
Direction of the state, economic conditions, and personal financial situation
The percentage saying the state is headed in the right direction, 44%, is unchanged from late September, with a 1 percentage point decrease in those saying it is off on the wrong track, to 55%. The full recent trend is shown in Table 33.
Table 33: Direction of the state
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Direction |
|
|
Right direction |
Wrong track |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
44 |
55 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
44 |
56 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
46 |
53 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
45 |
55 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
41 |
59 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
42 |
57 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
36 |
62 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||
|
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? |
||
The national economy is seen as excellent by only 6%, as good by 33%, as not so good by 30%, and as poor by 32%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 34.
Table 34: Views of the national economy
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
National economy |
|||
|
Excellent |
Good |
Not so good |
Poor |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
6 |
33 |
30 |
32 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
5 |
32 |
30 |
33 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
3 |
32 |
35 |
30 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
5 |
28 |
33 |
33 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
4 |
30 |
34 |
32 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
5 |
28 |
38 |
28 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
6 |
32 |
34 |
28 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
3 |
24 |
36 |
37 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days? |
||||
Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 44% say they are living comfortably, 39% say they are just getting by, and 17% say they are struggling. While financial situation has been relatively stable over the past year, the percentage saying they are living comfortably is far below the levels during the Trump administration in 2017-2020 or the early Biden administration in 2021-2022. This trend is shown in Table 35.
Table 35: Family financial situation
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Financial situation |
||
|
Living comfortably |
Just getting by |
Struggling |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
44 |
39 |
17 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
48 |
37 |
16 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
44 |
38 |
17 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
44 |
40 |
15 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
46 |
37 |
17 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
45 |
40 |
15 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
49 |
38 |
13 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
48 |
36 |
15 |
|
6/8-13/23 |
53 |
36 |
11 |
|
10/24-11/1/22 |
50 |
38 |
10 |
|
10/3-9/22 |
53 |
35 |
11 |
|
9/6-11/22 |
56 |
33 |
11 |
|
8/10-15/22 |
54 |
36 |
10 |
|
8/3-8/21 |
60 |
31 |
7 |
|
10/21-25/20 |
67 |
26 |
6 |
|
9/30-10/4/20 |
60 |
30 |
9 |
|
8/30-9/3/20 |
60 |
32 |
8 |
|
8/4-9/20 |
63 |
28 |
8 |
|
6/14-18/20 |
61 |
31 |
6 |
|
5/3-7/20 |
61 |
28 |
9 |
|
3/24-29/20 |
59 |
30 |
10 |
|
2/19-23/20 |
62 |
29 |
8 |
|
1/8-12/20 |
63 |
28 |
8 |
|
12/3-8/19 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
|
11/13-17/19 |
66 |
25 |
8 |
|
8/25-29/19 |
59 |
30 |
9 |
|
4/3-7/19 |
59 |
31 |
9 |
|
1/16-20/19 |
60 |
30 |
9 |
|
10/24-28/18 |
60 |
30 |
9 |
|
10/3-7/18 |
63 |
29 |
7 |
|
9/12-16/18 |
56 |
32 |
12 |
|
8/15-19/18 |
63 |
28 |
9 |
|
6/13-17/18 |
58 |
30 |
11 |
|
2/25-3/1/18 |
54 |
34 |
10 |
|
6/22-25/17 |
53 |
32 |
14 |
|
3/13-16/17 |
54 |
35 |
11 |
|
10/26-31/16 |
50 |
35 |
14 |
|
10/6-9/16 |
47 |
38 |
15 |
|
9/15-18/16 |
53 |
34 |
11 |
|
8/25-28/16 |
53 |
33 |
13 |
|
6/9-12/16 |
50 |
37 |
12 |
|
3/24-28/16 |
51 |
38 |
10 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||
|
Question: Thinking about your family's financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? |
|||
Property taxes, school funding, and satisfaction with public schools
Asked which is more important, reducing property taxes or increasing funding for schools, the percentage saying reducing property taxes is more important has increased substantially since 2018, while the percentage of those placing more importance on increasing funding for public schools has declined. In the current survey, 55% say reducing property taxes is more important, while 44% say increasing spending on schools is more important. In early October 2018, by contrast, 37% said reducing property taxes was more important, and 57% said school spending was more important. The full trend is shown in Table 36.
Table 36: Reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Which more important |
||
|
Reducing property taxes |
Increasing spending on public schools |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
55 |
44 |
1 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
56 |
44 |
1 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
52 |
47 |
1 |
|
6/8-13/23 |
50 |
47 |
3 |
|
10/24-11/1/22 |
46 |
48 |
5 |
|
10/3-9/22 |
42 |
52 |
5 |
|
9/6-11/22 |
41 |
51 |
5 |
|
8/10-15/22 |
43 |
52 |
5 |
|
4/19-24/22 |
46 |
50 |
4 |
|
8/3-8/21 |
42 |
52 |
5 |
|
2/19-23/20 |
38 |
56 |
5 |
|
1/8-12/20 |
41 |
55 |
4 |
|
1/16-20/19 |
39 |
55 |
6 |
|
10/24-28/18 |
40 |
55 |
4 |
|
10/3-7/18 |
37 |
57 |
6 |
|
9/12-16/18 |
38 |
57 |
5 |
|
8/15-19/18 |
32 |
61 |
5 |
|
6/13-17/18 |
35 |
59 |
5 |
|
2/25-3/1/18 |
33 |
63 |
3 |
|
4/7-10/15 |
40 |
54 |
5 |
|
5/6-9/13 |
49 |
46 |
4 |
|
3/11-13/13 |
49 |
46 |
4 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||
|
Question: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? |
|||
Satisfaction with public schools in the respondent’s community held steady from late September to October. Among those with an opinion, 66% are very satisfied or satisfied, and 35% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. In June, 52% were very satisfied or satisfied and 47% were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. The June poll followed news of financial errors in the Milwaukee Public Schools and the resignation of the MPS superintendent. Current satisfaction has returned to the previous level seen in early November 2023, though not to the pre-2020 level. The full trend in satisfaction with schools is shown in Table 37.
Table 37: Satisfaction with public schools
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Satisfaction |
|||
|
Very satisfied |
Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
Very dissatisfied |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
12 |
54 |
25 |
10 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
12 |
52 |
25 |
10 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
8 |
44 |
27 |
20 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
12 |
52 |
26 |
11 |
|
6/8-13/23 |
14 |
55 |
23 |
8 |
|
9/6-11/22 |
20 |
47 |
21 |
12 |
|
4/19-24/22 |
17 |
49 |
20 |
14 |
|
10/26-31/21 |
28 |
39 |
20 |
14 |
|
8/3-8/21 |
24 |
52 |
17 |
7 |
|
1/8-12/20 |
16 |
48 |
24 |
12 |
|
9/12-16/18 |
20 |
52 |
19 |
9 |
|
3/13-16/17 |
27 |
52 |
15 |
6 |
|
4/7-10/15 |
26 |
52 |
16 |
5 |
|
5/6-9/13 |
20 |
54 |
18 |
8 |
|
3/11-13/13 |
25 |
60 |
12 |
2 |
|
5/23-26/12 |
24 |
51 |
18 |
7 |
|
5/9-12/12 |
25 |
48 |
20 |
7 |
|
4/26-29/12 |
25 |
46 |
18 |
11 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community? |
||||
|
Note: Among those with an opinion |
||||
Approval of Gov. Tony Evers, favorability to Sen. Ron Johnson
Table 38 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers. Evers’s approval is 51% and disapproval is 45%, a recovery from late September when approval dipped below 50%.
Table 38: Approval of Tony Evers’s job performance
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Approval |
||
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Don't know |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
51 |
45 |
4 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
48 |
46 |
5 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
51 |
44 |
5 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
51 |
44 |
5 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
51 |
44 |
6 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
52 |
44 |
3 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
51 |
44 |
5 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
53 |
46 |
2 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
|||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as governor of Wisconsin? |
|||
Favorability to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is shown in Table 39. His favorable rating stands at 41%, with unfavorable at 45%, giving a net favorability of -4, his best net rating over the past year.
Table 39: Ron Johnson favorability
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net fav |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
10/16-24/24 |
-4 |
41 |
45 |
13 |
|
9/18-26/24 |
-9 |
40 |
49 |
11 |
|
8/28-9/5/24 |
-10 |
39 |
49 |
12 |
|
7/24-8/1/24 |
-11 |
36 |
47 |
17 |
|
6/12-20/24 |
-12 |
38 |
50 |
11 |
|
4/3-10/24 |
-12 |
39 |
51 |
11 |
|
1/24-31/24 |
-14 |
38 |
52 |
9 |
|
10/26-11/2/23 |
-10 |
40 |
50 |
10 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Oct. 16-24, 2024 |
||||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven't you heard enough about them yet? |
||||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted Oct. 16-24, 2024, interviewing 834 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. The sample contains 753 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the same as for registered voters.
The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 608 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 226 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 725 respondents and with 109 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.
The partisan makeup of the sample is 36% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 34% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 31% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.
The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.
Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu.
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