Nov. 16, 2023
Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds President Joe Biden trailing against each of the top three potential Republican candidates, with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley leading Biden 55% to 45% among registered voters. Former President Trump leads Biden 52% to 48% in the same category, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a 51% to 49% advantage.
Among likely voters, Haley sees her advantage rise to 12 percentage points at 56-44. The Biden-DeSantis hypothetical does not change with likely voters, while Trump’s support decreases to 51% against Biden’s 49%.
These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates.
Among registered Republican voters, Trump maintains a substantial lead over all others in the primary field for the GOP nomination, with 54% of the total. DeSantis and Haley are tied at 12%. That represents a rise for Haley and a decline for DeSantis since March. No other candidate has more than 4% support in the current poll.
The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May, with the trend shown in Table 1. Among likely voters in September, Biden received 51% to Trump’s 49%. Likely voters results are not available for earlier polls. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May-November
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Vote |
|
|
Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
|
|
11/2-7/23 |
52 |
48 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
51 |
48 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
50 |
50 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
52 |
47 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden? |
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The trend among registered voters for the DeSantis-Biden choice is shown in Table 2. Among likely voters in September, Biden received 51% to DeSantis’s 48%. Likely voters results are not available for earlier polls.
Table 2: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. DeSantis, May-September
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Vote |
|
|
Ron DeSantis |
Joe Biden |
|
|
11/2-7/23 |
51 |
49 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
51 |
48 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
51 |
48 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
52 |
48 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys |
||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis? |
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The Haley-Biden vote was first measured in the current poll, so no trend is available.
Table 3 shows the Biden versus Trump results by party identification. Trump receives a higher share of Republican votes than does Biden among Democrats, while independents favor Trump. (Throughout this report, party identification includes independents who say they are closer to a party while “independents” separately listed here are those who say they are not closer to either party.)
Table 3: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Vote choice |
|
|
Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
|
|
Total |
52 |
48 |
|
Republican |
92 |
8 |
|
Independent |
54 |
46 |
|
Democrat |
11 |
89 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? |
||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
||
In the Biden-DeSantis pairing, Republican support for DeSantis is a little higher than in Trump’s case, and Biden’s support among Democrats is also slightly higher than against Trump. Biden has a small lead among independents in this matchup, as shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Vote for Biden or DeSantis, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Vote choice |
|
|
Ron DeSantis |
Joe Biden |
|
|
Total |
51 |
49 |
|
Republican |
96 |
4 |
|
Independent |
47 |
53 |
|
Democrat |
8 |
92 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis? |
||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
||
Haley holds Republican support as well as DeSantis does, while attracting a substantial crossover vote from Democrats. Independents are about evenly divided, as shown in Table 5. Haley’s strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic voters than Trump or DeSantis accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden.
Table 5: Vote for Biden or Haley, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Vote choice |
|
|
Nikki Haley |
Joe Biden |
|
|
Total |
55 |
45 |
|
Republican |
96 |
4 |
|
Independent |
49 |
51 |
|
Democrat |
15 |
85 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley? |
||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
||
A significant share of voters are initially reluctant to choose between Biden or Trump, saying they would vote for “someone else” or wouldn’t vote. The share of these reluctant voters had remained around 20-25% since the question was first posed in November 2021. In September and November, the share of reluctant voters has dipped below 20%. It was 18% in November. The full trend is shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Reluctant to choose Biden or Trump, Nov. 2021-Nov. 2023
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Reluctant or not |
|
|
Reluctant |
Not reluctant |
|
|
11/2-7/23 |
18 |
82 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
16 |
84 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
24 |
76 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
25 |
75 |
|
3/13-22/23 |
24 |
76 |
|
1/9-20/23 |
20 |
80 |
|
11/15-22/22 |
23 |
77 |
|
9/7-14/22 |
22 |
78 |
|
3/14-24/22 |
19 |
81 |
|
1/10-21/22 |
22 |
78 |
|
11/1-10/21 |
22 |
78 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys |
||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden, someone else or wouldn’t you vote? |
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When asked to choose, almost all respondents will make a choice of Biden or Trump. In November, among initially reluctant registered voters, 53% said they would pick Trump and 47% would definitely vote for Biden.
The trend in choices among initially reluctant voters since May is shown in Table 7. Biden has had an edge with these reluctant voters in each poll prior to the current one.
Table 7: Choice among initially reluctant voters, May-Nov. 2023
Among registered voters who initially don't pick Biden or Trump
|
Poll dates |
Vote when asked to choose |
|
|
Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
|
|
11/2-7/23 |
53 |
47 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
42 |
55 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
48 |
51 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
47 |
51 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys |
||
|
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? |
||
Haley is the only one of the four leading candidates viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with a net favorability—favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage—of +7. Trump is at -15, Biden is at -19, and DeSantis is at -21, as shown in Table 8. However, many more voters say they haven’t heard enough about Haley to have an opinion than say that of the other candidates.
Table 8: Favorability to Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley
Among registered voters
|
Candidate |
Favorability |
|||
|
Net favorable |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
Joe Biden |
-19 |
40 |
59 |
1 |
|
Donald Trump |
-15 |
42 |
57 |
2 |
|
Ron DeSantis |
-21 |
34 |
55 |
11 |
|
Nikki Haley |
7 |
38 |
31 |
31 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? |
||||
For Biden and Trump, 20% are unfavorable to both candidates. The number unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 9. While more respondents have seen Biden favorably and Trump unfavorably in 10 of the last 13 polls, slightly more have seen Trump favorably and Biden unfavorably in the last two polls, in September and November.
Table 9: Favorability to Biden and Trump, Nov. 2021-Nov. 2023
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Favorability to both |
||||
|
Biden fav, Trump fav |
Biden fav, Trump unfav |
Biden unfav, Trump fav |
Biden unfav, Trump unfav |
DK/NA either |
|
|
11/2-7/23 |
3 |
36 |
38 |
20 |
2 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
3 |
36 |
39 |
20 |
2 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
1 |
39 |
33 |
23 |
3 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
2 |
35 |
36 |
23 |
5 |
|
3/13-22/23 |
2 |
39 |
32 |
23 |
5 |
|
1/9-20/23 |
1 |
42 |
34 |
19 |
4 |
|
11/15-22/22 |
1 |
44 |
30 |
21 |
4 |
|
9/7-14/22 |
1 |
43 |
32 |
21 |
3 |
|
7/5-12/22 |
0 |
35 |
34 |
26 |
5 |
|
5/9-19/22 |
1 |
39 |
36 |
20 |
4 |
|
3/14-24/22 |
2 |
41 |
35 |
18 |
3 |
|
1/10-21/22 |
2 |
44 |
29 |
22 |
4 |
|
11/1-10/21 |
1 |
43 |
30 |
20 |
6 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? |
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Biden’s job approval in November was 40%, with 60% disapproving, a change of a single point in each total from September’s 39% approval and 61% disapproval.
A strength of Biden, despite his high disapproval, has been his ability to win “votes” from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president, typically splitting or winning a small majority of this group of voters. Table 10 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval of Biden’s job performance. Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approval (“strongly” and “somewhat”), while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters, with a Biden advantage among those somewhat disapproving of his job performance.
Table 10: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
|
Biden job approval |
Vote |
|
|
Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
|
|
Total |
52 |
48 |
|
Strongly approve |
3 |
97 |
|
Somewhat approve |
9 |
91 |
|
Somewhat disapprove |
45 |
55 |
|
Strongly disapprove |
94 |
6 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? |
||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? |
||
When paired against DeSantis, Biden does a bit better with the “somewhat disapprove” group, while the other groups remain unchanged.
Table 11: Biden vs. DeSantis vote, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
|
Biden job approval |
Vote |
|
|
Ron DeSantis |
Joe Biden |
|
|
Total |
51 |
49 |
|
Strongly approve |
3 |
97 |
|
Somewhat approve |
9 |
91 |
|
Somewhat disapprove |
40 |
60 |
|
Strongly disapprove |
94 |
6 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis? |
||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? |
||
In another example of why Haley does better against Biden than does Trump or DeSantis, she draws more votes from the two categories of approval and slightly leads among the “somewhat disapprove” group, while winning the vast majority of those who strongly disapprove of Biden, as shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Biden vs. Haley vote, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
|
Biden job approval |
Vote |
|
|
Nikki Haley |
Joe Biden |
|
|
Total |
55 |
45 |
|
Strongly approve |
7 |
93 |
|
Somewhat approve |
15 |
85 |
|
Somewhat disapprove |
52 |
48 |
|
Strongly disapprove |
93 |
7 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden? |
||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for Haley? |
||
|
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? |
||
The ability of potential third-party candidates to influence the election is a growing concern for both major parties. In the new Marquette Law School Poll, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is seen favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 38%, with 24% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. As shown in Table 13, Kennedy is viewed more favorably by Republicans and independents than by Democrats.
Table 13: Kennedy favorability, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Favorability |
||
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven’t heard enough |
|
|
Total |
38 |
38 |
24 |
|
Republican |
46 |
27 |
27 |
|
Independent |
42 |
32 |
26 |
|
Democrat |
29 |
51 |
20 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? |
|||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
|||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
|||
When asked how likely they would be to vote for Kennedy rather than the Democratic or Republican nominees, if Kennedy were on the ballot, 9% say they would definitely vote for Kennedy, and 28% would probably do so, while 29% would probably not vote for him and 34% would definitely not.
Table 14 shows likelihood of voting for Kennedy by party identification, showing Republicans slightly more likely to say they definitely or probably would vote for Kennedy. More Democrats than Republicans say they would definitely not support Kennedy. Independents are substantially more likely to vote for Kennedy, either “definitely” or “probably,” than are members of either partisan group.
Table 14: Consider voting for Kennedy, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Vote for Kennedy |
|||
|
Definitely vote for Kennedy |
Probably vote for Kennedy |
Probably not vote for Kennedy |
Definitely not vote for Kennedy |
|
|
Total |
9 |
28 |
29 |
34 |
|
Republican |
9 |
29 |
34 |
28 |
|
Independent |
23 |
42 |
24 |
12 |
|
Democrat |
7 |
24 |
24 |
45 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates? |
||||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
||||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
||||
Kennedy’s potential to draw votes from those who say they would vote for Biden or Trump without Kennedy on the ballot is shown in Table 15. Slightly more Trump voters say they would definitely or probably vote for Kennedy than do Biden voters, while Biden voters are considerably more likely to say they would “definitely not” vote for Kennedy.
Table 15: Consider voting for Kennedy, by Biden-Trump choice
Among registered voters
|
Biden-Trump vote |
Vote for Kennedy |
|||
|
Definitely vote for Kennedy |
Probably vote for Kennedy |
Probably not vote for Kennedy |
Definitely not vote for Kennedy |
|
|
Total |
9 |
28 |
29 |
34 |
|
Donald Trump |
11 |
31 |
33 |
25 |
|
Joe Biden |
8 |
25 |
24 |
43 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates? |
||||
|
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? |
||||
|
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? |
||||
Another potential independent candidate is Cornel West. He is much less well known than Kennedy, with 67% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, 10% having a favorable opinion, and 22% having an unfavorable view. Table 16 shows favorability to West by party identification. Democrats are more likely to have an opinion, and a more favorable opinion, than are Republicans, though both are more unfavorable than favorable.
Table 16: West favorability, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Favorability |
||
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven't heard enough |
|
|
Total |
10 |
22 |
67 |
|
Republican |
6 |
22 |
71 |
|
Independent |
12 |
20 |
68 |
|
Democrat |
14 |
22 |
64 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
|||
|
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cornel West or haven't you heard enough about him yet? |
|||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
|||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
|||
West, who is Black, is considerably better known among Black voters than among other racial or ethnic groups. Black voters are the only group with more than half saying they are familiar enough to have an opinion of West, and he is seen more favorably than unfavorably among Black respondents, as shown in Table 17.
Table 17: West favorability, by race and ethnicity
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Favorability |
||
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Haven’t heard enough |
|
|
Total |
10 |
22 |
67 |
|
White |
7 |
23 |
70 |
|
Black |
35 |
23 |
43 |
|
Hispanic |
10 |
21 |
69 |
|
Other/Multiple |
8 |
15 |
77 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? |
|||
As previously mentioned, Trump maintains a substantial lead over all others in the primary field for the GOP nomination, with 54% of registered Republican voters, as shown in Table 18. DeSantis and Haley are tied at 12%, which represents a rise for Haley and a decline for DeSantis since March. No other candidate has more than 4% support in the current poll. Sen. Tim Scott suspended his campaign after this poll was conducted.
Table 18: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination
Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican
|
Candidate |
Poll dates |
||||
|
11/2-7/23 |
9/18-25/23 |
7/7-12/23 |
5/8-18/23 |
3/13-22/23 |
|
|
Donald Trump |
54 |
56 |
46 |
46 |
40 |
|
Nikki Haley |
12 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
|
Ron DeSantis |
12 |
12 |
22 |
25 |
35 |
|
Vivek Ramaswamy |
4 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
- |
|
Tim Scott |
2 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
Chris Christie |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
Doug Burgum |
0 |
0 |
1 |
- |
- |
|
Asa Hutchinson |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Mike Pence |
- |
4 |
7 |
2 |
5 |
|
Larry Elder |
- |
0 |
0 |
1 |
- |
|
Will Hurd |
- |
0 |
0 |
- |
- |
|
Undecided/Other |
16 |
15 |
12 |
16 |
12 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for? |
|||||
|
Note: Tim Scott suspended his campaign after this survey was completed Note: - indicates candidate not included in the particular poll |
|||||
Republican primary preferences differ sharply depending on the voters’ view of Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins a large majority of voters who have a favorable view of him. Among those unfavorable to Trump, Haley is now the substantial leader with 37% support to DeSantis’ 10%, while 34% of these Republicans unfavorable to Trump remain undecided. Table 19 shows the full results.
Table 19: GOP primary preference, by Trump favorability
Among Republican registered voters
|
Trump favorability |
Primary preference |
|||||||
|
Doug Burgum |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Undecided |
|
|
Total |
0 |
1 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
2 |
54 |
16 |
|
Favorable |
0 |
0 |
12 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
69 |
10 |
|
Unfavorable |
2 |
3 |
10 |
37 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
34 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for? |
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Table 20 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, and, to a smaller degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen better on abortion policy and especially on climate change. The two are seen as about equal on handling Medicare and Social Security.
A substantial percentage say both candidates would be about the same on an issue or that neither would be good on the issue. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing candidates opportunities to gain support.
Table 20: Who would handle issues better
Among registered voters
|
Issue |
Who better on issue |
|||
|
Biden |
Trump |
Both about the same |
Neither good |
|
|
Immigration and border security |
27 |
50 |
7 |
16 |
|
The economy |
30 |
51 |
7 |
11 |
|
Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza |
31 |
42 |
11 |
16 |
|
Foreign relations |
38 |
44 |
7 |
11 |
|
Medicare & Social Security |
38 |
39 |
11 |
12 |
|
Abortion policy |
41 |
34 |
10 |
14 |
|
Climate change |
42 |
31 |
11 |
16 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues? |
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Table 21 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as “too old” to be president compared to those who see Trump as too old, with 57% saying this describes Biden very well and 23% saying the same of Trump.
On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than say it of Biden, but many more are emphatic that this does not describe either Trump or Biden at all.
Corruption assertions have been leveled against both candidates. In this poll, 30% say “has behaved corruptly” describes Biden very well and 45% say the same for Trump.
On having a strong record of accomplishment as president, 18% say this describes Biden very well, while 31% say this describes Trump very well.
Table 21: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
|
Issue |
How well phrase describes |
|||
|
Very well |
Somewhat well |
Not too well |
Not at all well |
|
|
Is too old to be president |
||||
|
Biden |
57 |
23 |
8 |
12 |
|
Trump |
23 |
28 |
27 |
22 |
|
Shares your values |
||||
|
Biden |
15 |
28 |
18 |
40 |
|
Trump |
19 |
26 |
13 |
42 |
|
Has behaved corruptly |
||||
|
Biden |
30 |
19 |
20 |
30 |
|
Trump |
45 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
|
Strong record of accomplishments as president |
||||
|
Biden |
18 |
22 |
21 |
38 |
|
Trump |
31 |
21 |
15 |
32 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
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|
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)? |
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Approval of Congress has declined slightly following the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House on Oct. 3 and the subsequent election of Rep. Mike Johnson as Speaker on Oct. 25. In the November poll, 27% approved of how Congress is handling its job, and 73% disapproved. In September, 30% approved and 70% disapproved of how Congress was handling its job.
More than half of registered voters, 59%, have heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker, 26% heard a little, and 15% heard nothing at all about this.
Approval of Congress in November is lower among those who heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker than among those who did not follow the news about the Speaker, as shown in Table 22.
Table 22: Approval of Congress, by amount heard about election of new Speaker
Among registered voters
|
Heard about Speaker election |
Congressional approval |
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
|
|
Total |
27 |
73 |
|
A lot |
20 |
80 |
|
A little |
37 |
63 |
|
Nothing at all |
33 |
67 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
||
|
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? |
||
|
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … The election of a new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives |
||
In January, following McCarthy’s election as speaker after 15 ballots, 42% said they thought the House Republicans could unite to govern effectively, while 58% said they could not. Now, following McCarthy’s ouster and Johnson’s election as speaker, 39% think Republicans can unite and 61% that they cannot.
Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, 81% say they have read or heard a lot about the conflict, 16% have heard a little, and 3% say they have heard nothing at all.
A majority, 52%, say the U.S. should support Israel, 5% say the U.S. should support Hamas, and 43% say the U.S. should not take a position on the conflict.
Views of whom to support differ by party, with Republicans most supportive of Israel, Democrats evenly divided between supporting Israel and not taking a position, and independents quite strongly in favor of neutrality, as shown in Table 23.
Table 23: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
Support Israel or Hamas |
||
|
Support Israel |
Support Hamas |
U.S. should not take a position |
|
|
Total |
52 |
5 |
43 |
|
Republican |
65 |
1 |
34 |
|
Independent |
21 |
4 |
75 |
|
Democrat |
47 |
8 |
45 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
|||
|
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position? |
|||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
|||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
|||
There are also sharp ideological differences, shown in Table 24, with conservatives more in favor of supporting Israel, while a majority of the most liberal registered voters say the U.S. should not take a position. Support for Hamas remains below 10% for all ideological groups.
Table 24: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by ideology
Among registered voters
|
|
Support Israel or Hamas |
||
|
Ideology ID |
Support Israel |
Support Hamas |
U.S. should not take a position |
|
Total |
52 |
5 |
43 |
|
Very conservative |
73 |
2 |
25 |
|
Somewhat conservative |
66 |
1 |
33 |
|
Moderate |
45 |
6 |
50 |
|
Somewhat liberal |
44 |
6 |
49 |
|
Very liberal |
31 |
9 |
60 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
|||
|
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position? |
|||
|
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views? |
|||
The youngest age group, those 18-29, are the least supportive of Israel and the only age group where support for Hamas exceeds 10%. Support for Israel increases steadily with age, as shown in Table 25.
Table 25: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by age
Among registered voters
|
Age |
Support Israel or Hamas |
||
|
Support Israel |
Support Hamas |
U.S. should not take a position |
|
|
Total |
52 |
5 |
43 |
|
18-29 |
23 |
16 |
61 |
|
30-44 |
37 |
8 |
56 |
|
45-59 |
59 |
2 |
39 |
|
60+ |
69 |
0 |
31 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
|||
|
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position? |
|||
Registered voters have a negative view of the economy, with 33% rating it poor and 40% saying “not so good,” while 24% say it is good and only 3% say it is excellent. In September, 32% rated it poor and 45% said “not so good,” while 20% said it is good and 3% said the economy is excellent.
Republicans and independents are quite negative in their view of the economy and Democrats somewhat more positive. Table 26 shows opinion of the economy, overall and by party identification.
Table 26: View of the economy, by party identification, September 2023
Among registered voters
|
Party ID |
View of the economy |
|||
|
Excellent |
Good |
Not so good |
Poor |
|
|
Total |
3 |
24 |
40 |
33 |
|
Republican |
0 |
9 |
37 |
53 |
|
Independent |
1 |
11 |
52 |
36 |
|
Democrat |
6 |
42 |
40 |
13 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
||||
|
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days? |
||||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
||||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
||||
Asked about their personal financial situation, in November, 39% say they are living comfortably, 43% are just getting by, and 19% say they are struggling. That is little changed from September, when 37% said they were living comfortably, 45% were just getting by, and 17% said they were struggling.
Partisanship also strongly affects views of the economy, regardless of respondent’s personal financial situation. Table 27 shows views of the economy by family financial situation and by party. Those with a better personal financial situation see the economy as better than those with worse finances, but partisanship is strongly related to view of the economy in each category of personal finances.
Table 27: View of the economy by financial situation and by party identification
Among registered voters
|
Financial situation |
View of the ecconomy |
|||
|
Excellent |
Good |
Not so good |
Poor |
|
|
Living comfortably |
||||
|
Republican |
1 |
13 |
51 |
36 |
|
Independent |
0 |
44 |
54 |
2 |
|
Democrat |
7 |
60 |
27 |
6 |
|
Just getting by |
||||
|
Republican |
0 |
10 |
33 |
57 |
|
Independent |
2 |
9 |
61 |
28 |
|
Democrat |
4 |
32 |
51 |
13 |
|
Struggling |
||||
|
Republican |
0 |
0 |
22 |
77 |
|
Independent |
0 |
1 |
41 |
58 |
|
Democrat |
5 |
12 |
52 |
31 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
||||
|
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days? |
||||
|
Question: Thinking about your family's financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? |
||||
|
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? |
||||
|
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither? |
||||
The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey, September in this case. Respondents are more than twice as likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. Table 28 shows attention paid to news for inflation and news for unemployment.
Table 28: How much heard about economic news
Registered voters
|
|
How much heard or read |
||
|
Issue |
A lot |
A little |
Nothing at all |
|
Inflation rate |
49 |
37 |
14 |
|
Unemployment rate |
23 |
52 |
25 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
|||
|
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.7% over the past 12 months (as of September) |
|||
|
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.8% (as of September) |
|||
Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 66% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 34% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 29 shows the full trend on these preferences. Preferences did not shift substantially following the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022.
Table 29: Abortion policy preference trend
Among registered voters
|
Poll dates |
Policy preference |
|||
|
Legal in all cases |
Legal in most cases |
Illegal in most cases |
Illegal in all cases |
|
|
11/2-7/23 |
28 |
38 |
25 |
9 |
|
9/18-25/23 |
33 |
36 |
25 |
6 |
|
7/7-12/23 |
29 |
36 |
29 |
6 |
|
5/8-18/23 |
32 |
36 |
26 |
6 |
|
3/13-22/23 |
28 |
36 |
29 |
6 |
|
1/9-20/23 |
26 |
38 |
29 |
7 |
|
11/15-22/22 |
31 |
37 |
24 |
8 |
|
9/7-14/22 |
32 |
35 |
27 |
6 |
|
7/5-12/22 |
29 |
35 |
28 |
8 |
|
5/9-19/22 |
29 |
37 |
25 |
8 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys |
||||
|
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? |
||||
Among registered voters, 40% say the abortion issue is one of the most important issues to them, 40% say it is somewhat important, 16% say it is not very important, and 4% say it is not important at all.
Those who say abortion should be legal in all circumstances also rate the issue as among the most important, while a majority of those who say abortion should be illegal in all circumstances also rate it most important, but to a lesser degree. Those who say it should be legal in most cases or illegal in most cases rate the importance of the issue substantially lower, as shown in Table 30.
Table 30: Importance of the abortion issue by policy preference
Among registered voters
|
Abortion policy preference |
Importance of the issue |
|||
|
One of the most important issues |
Somewhat important |
Not very important |
Not important at all |
|
|
Total |
40 |
40 |
16 |
4 |
|
Legal in all cases |
66 |
26 |
7 |
1 |
|
Legal in most cases |
25 |
49 |
22 |
4 |
|
Illegal in most cases |
29 |
44 |
23 |
4 |
|
Illegal in all cases |
54 |
28 |
2 |
15 |
|
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023 |
||||
|
Question: How important is the abortion issue to you--would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all? |
||||
|
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? |
||||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the sample size in 398 and the margin of error is +/-6.6 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on Nov. 15. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.
Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu.
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